Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Cold, dry, arctic air continues to dominate the weather pattern for the foreseeable future.SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, around -20 C in the alpine, light variable winds at all elevations, no significant snowfall expected.SUNDAY: Clear skies at dawn with cloud cover increasing throughout the day, freezing level at valley bottom, around -20 C in the alpine, light variable wind at valley bottom, light southwest wind in the alpine, no significant snowfall expectedMONDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, around -20 C in the alpine, light variable wind at all elevations, no significant snowfall expected. A few centimeters of snow possible Monday night.TUESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, around -20 C in the alpine, light variable wind at most elevations with moderate southwest wind at ridgetop, a few cm of snow possible.

On Saturday a skier remote triggered a size 1 wind slab on a south/southeast facing slope at 2500 m.On Friday a skier in the "Molars South" zone near Golden accidentally triggered a size 2 avalanche on a southeast facing slope at 2300 m with a crown 40 to 50 cm in depth, the mid January persistent weak layer was likely in play. Also on Friday, a natural size 1 persistent slab avalanche was reported from an east facing slope at 1900 m. Finally, a natural size 1 wind slab avalanche was reported from an east facing slope at 2300 m on Friday. The mid-January persistent weak layer continues to be sensitive to human triggering and is sensitive enough to trigger remotely (from a distance). Human triggered avalanches size 1.5 to 2 were reported almost everyday last week. This MIN report from February 3rd illustrates the potential for humans to remotely trigger the mid January layer.

Approximately 30-60 cm of old storm snow sits on, surface hoar (feathery crystals), facets (sugary snow) and a crust on sun-exposed slopes. A very notable feature in the snowpack is a persistent weak layer that was buried in mid January, which is now 50-90 cm below the surface. This layer consists primarily of surface hoar, however there is also a crust associated with it on sun-exposed slopes. This layer has been most reactive at treeline and below.The base of the snowpack has a deep persistent weak layer near the ground. This layer consists of facets over a crust. This weak interface continues to produce large and destructive avalanches that are sporadic in nature, and very difficult to predict. This layer is most likely to be triggered from areas where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Rocky alpine bowls, ridge crests and rocky outcroppings are some examples of the kind of terrain to be wary of.