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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 11th, 2020–Mar 12th, 2020
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

It’s been stormy in the West-North the last few days, and that left us with wind loaded areas at mid and upper elevations. Take time to identify and avoid smooth pillow-like drifts and slopes below sharp cornices. If the sun comes out for longer periods of time, look for the snow change and react differently, including natural loose avalanches.

Snowpack Discussion

March 5, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)

Ridgetop wind transport near Washington Pass. 3/4/20 Photo: Josh Hirshberg

 

The beginning of March brought the first spring-like weather to the region. The days are getting longer and the sun (when it shines) has a noticeable effect on the snow. Alternating sun breaks and snowstorms is the theme of the week and the avalanche danger fluctuated just as fast as the weather. The southern zones and the east slopes have seen periods of light snowfall and significant sunshine while the northern zones and west slopes have had significant snowfall and occasional sun breaks. Above freezing temperatures were common at lower elevations throughout the region. 

Last week in review:  Temperatures were above freezing at most trailhead locations and concerns about the previous week’s buried surface hoar and weak layers were fading. Saturday temperatures plummeted as strong winds and new snow built wind slabs in most areas and drove the avalanche danger to considerable in almost every zone. Sunday’s calm weather and clearing in most areas helped stabilize wind slabs, but our attention turned to the strength of the sun and daytime warming. Lingering wind slabs and loose wet avalanches were forecast in every zone. For the remainder of the week, the avalanche problems in every zone were confined to the recent snow and each brief storm cycle had us thinking about wind slabs at upper elevations and loose wet avalanches from daytime warming and sunshine.

Spring isn’t actually here -- another round of cold temps and snow showers are on the way this weekend, but this past week’s oscillating weather is a good reminder to begin to shift our mindset. The sun is gaining strength, the days are getting longer, and we begin daylight savings this week. Even a brief period of sunshine can dramatically alter fresh, new snow. Check the mountain weather and avalanche forecasts for the most up to date info, enjoy the backcountry and let us know what you see out there!

--Peter Moore

Wet loose avalanche debris near Snow Lake. 3/5/20 Photo: Dallas Glass

Fresh cornice development from strong winds in the Stevens Pass backcountry. 3/4/20 Photo: Tom Whipple

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Windy conditions the last few days transported the recent snow and formed slabs on the lee sides of ridges and along exposed mid-slope features. Even, though these wind slabs are more than 24hrs old, you’ll want to give them a wide berth Thursday. Take time to identify and avoid any steep slope with smooth pillow-like drifts, below cornices, or where you find firm hollow snow. Expect wind slabs to grow larger and harder to manage as you travel higher in the terrain or move into more wind prone areas. 

On Wednesday avalanche professionals in several locations around the West-North region reported both natural and human triggered wind slabs 8-12” deep. While wind affected snow was found on all aspects, many of these avalanches occurred on NE-E facing slopes. Storm totals from the area ranged from 8-14” for most locations.

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Loose Wet

On Thursday partly cloudy skies and cold air temperatures will do their best to keep the strong March sun at bay and the snow dry. However, if the sun comes out for more prolonged periods of time, you could see it affect the surface snow, potentially causing it to become unstable. You’ll notice this first when the new snow sheds from rocks and trees. As the snow becomes wet and sticky, you could see new rollerballs and loose wet avalanches. If you see fan-shaped debris, steer clear of similar slopes. In larger steeper terrain, these loose slides could entrain most of the new snow and grow large. 

If you encounter natural loose wet avalanches, that means the sun is winning the battle. This could also indicate it may be weakening large cornices. Don’t linger below these ticking timebombs.

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1