Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Thursday Overnight: Winds increasing strong to extreme from the southwest as the front moves into the northwest ranges. Light to moderate precipitation overnight with 5-10cm of accumulation. Freezing levels at valley bottom with alpine temperatures around -12 C. 

Friday: A stormy day. Strong to extreme southwest winds with moderate to heavy precipitation, 15-30cm of accumulation. Freezing levels rising to around 500m, alpine temperatures around -8 C. 

Saturday: Cloudy with continued light precipitation. Winds easing to moderate to strong from the southwest at ridgetop. Freezing levels at valley bottom with alpine temperatures around -15 C. 

Sunday: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, 2-5 cm accumulation. Moderate westerly winds at ridgetop, alpine temperatures around -15 C. 

On Saturday, a size 3 avalanche was reported in the Hankin-Evelyn area, failing near the ground. This has us thinking about the potential for a deep persistent weak layer.

On Thursday, our field team was out in the Telkwa mountains, they saw a few natural cornice failures up to size 2. Keep in mind that cornice failures have the potential to put a large load on the snowpack and trigger deeper layers.

If you do head out in the backcountry, please share your observations to the Mountain Information Network!

Up to 40 cm of new snow has fallen in the past week with another 10-20 cm expected throughout the day today. Strong to extreme southwest winds will redistribute this new snow into new wind slabs in the alpine and treeline. These new wind slabs will overlie older wind slabs from earlier in the week, amongst a variety of hard, wind effected surfaces. 

Below 1400m, a thin rain crust exists below the new snow. There have been reports of faceting around this crust with recent cold temperatures. A spotty surface hoar layer has been reported down ~100cm in the alpine and treeline. 

An early season crust can be found near the base of the snowpack. It has shown reactivity in the past week with large loads (explosives and cornice), creating large avalanches. We don't know how widespread this problem may be. With the incoming snow and wind we are definitely keeping an eye on it, and would be avoiding large features and areas with thin to thick snowpack transitions.

Snowpack depth at treeline ranges from 150-200 cm, with higher values in the western part of the region, tapering to the east.

• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
• Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
• Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.