Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 25th, 2015 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Wet and Deep Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Unusual conditions for late January with a "Spring" feel. Warm and sunny conditions on Monday will increase the avalanche danger through the day, especially on solar aspects. Recent wind loading has also created touchy wind slabs.

Summary

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Very strong winds will continue into Monday. Sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected with the freezing level climbing to 2300m.

Avalanche Summary

A naturally triggered avalanche cycle is occurring, due to either wind loading or solar/warming triggers. A few slab avalanches up to size 2.0 were observed at Treeline elevations on mostly E and NE aspects with one exception on a W aspect. These have been triggered by wind loading in the past 24 to 48hrs. Several loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 occurred today on all aspects except North due to very warm temperatures and periodic bursts of intense solar radiation. North aspects below 2300m did exhibit some snowballing.

Snowpack Summary

Extreme West to South-West winds are moving significant amounts of snow to lee aspects at Treeline and above. Wind slab formation is on-going. A few slab avalanches were observed today and are associated with this wind-loading. Moist snow is found up to 2300m on all aspects and much higher on solar aspects. Temperatures reached well above the freezing mark at Treeline today and snowballing and small loose wet slides were observed on all aspects. The Jan 16th surface hoar and the Dec crust layers are still cause for concern, as is the Nov facets. The snowpack is settling rapidly.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slab formation continues due to extreme W and SW winds. Various interfaces exist and these are variable in their sensitivity to triggering. Use caution in wind effected terrain as human triggering is likely.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

Warm and sunny conditions with a weak overnight freeze will lead to loose wet avalanches on Monday. These will likely begin on SE aspects and then move through S and W aspects through the day.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Cornices become weak with daytime heating. >Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Some recent avalanche activity has stepped down to the basal weak layers. Full depth avalanches are possible.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Jan 26th, 2015 2:00PM