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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 10th, 2014–Dec 11th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

With no Freeze expected over the next 36hrs below 2400m, conditions will remain "Sporty".  There is really no good skiing out there at this time so be patient for a while yet. 

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels are expected to remain above 2200m until friday when we will finally see some cooler air move into the region.  We may see a spattering of rain and or snow throughout the week but forecastd amounts are not expected to be that significant.  Freezing levels and the lack of any freeze are key issues at this time.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose wet slides from steeper terrain on all aspects up to 2400m

Snowpack Summary

Rain is falling at this time as high as 2300m.  Below this elevation the snowpack is moist and settling rapidly.  Above this elevation the region has been hit hard by the strong winds from last week and many area are looking pretty rugged.  Long term this warm temps and settlement will help consolidate some of the weak layers but right now, it sure makes skiing an unpleasant thought!

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Rain and warm temps have the potential to wake up this basal layer.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Pockets of persistent slabs failing on the Nov 24th facet layer may be a concern in isolated features such as gullies and ridgelines.
Avoid cross loaded features.>Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Wet

Loose wet point releases in steeper terrain below the freezing levels.  This may be above treeline in some areas so water the thermomotor.
Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2