Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2016–Dec 16th, 2016

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Variable. We seem to experience a different snowpack in each drainage we travel to. Be curious as you travel and look for the problems. Ski quality is also variable. Sheltered areas at treeline can have good skiing.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Cold. Yes...its still going to be cold. Overnight alpine temps will once again go down to -29. Tomorrow will be similar to today with mostly clear skies. Of course, this means there will be no new snow. No surprise there either. The "high" alpine temperature will be about -24 with winds from the northwest at 20 km/hr. Windchill values will be very, very low. Prepare accordingly.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new today.

Snowpack Summary

Forecasters went to Burstall Pass for today's snowpack assessment. Interestingly, we found a snowpack that is quite different than other areas. Below treeline is still horrendously bad skiing with only enough snow to barely cover the fallen trees and rocks. To top if off, this snow is facetted/rotten enough now to offer no cushioning when the inevitable ski tip snag sends the pilot flying. Treeline has a deeper (90cm) snowpack that is still supportive in most areas. The Nov 12 crust is down 50-60cm and was unreactive in stability tests. As the terrain opens up, some windslabs are encountered.The Alpine. This is where we start to have a winter snowpack. The depth increases significantly and the windslab problems are amplified. The slabs are more prevalent in terms of depth and distribution, but they seem to be more facetted and less of a concern than the more southern forecast areas. The Nov 12 crust starts to disappear at about 2400m and we're thinking it is gone by 2550m. Keep in mind, it may be a thin layer of facets that is hard to feel probing. Dig to confirm before jumping on a slope for the first time.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Today's trip to Burstall Pass was a good indicator for how variable it is out there. The wind slabs were thin, and isolated. In contrast, yesterday's trip saw us avoiding steep slopes at treeline in favor of heavily treed areas.

Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls Caution around convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Similar to the windslab issue, the crust is in various states of decay depending on where you are. Dig at an appropriate aspect/elevation (with respect to ski line) and inspect it before committing. It tends to fade away at about 2400-2500m.

Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls Evaluate unsupported slopes critically.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2