Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 21st, 2018 4:37PM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Avalanche danger will increase over the day as a warm spring storm builds fresh storm slabs at higher elevations.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Thursday: Cloudy with wet flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, increasing and cooling overnight. Light southwest winds, becoming strong at ridgetop. Freezing level to 1900 metres with alpine high temperatures around -1.Friday: Cloudy with continuing scattered flurries and another 2-5 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level to 1300 metres with alpine high temperatures around -7.Saturday: Cloudy with flurries bringing another 5-8 cm of new snow. Light southwest winds. Freezing level to 1200 metres with alpine high temperatures around -6.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Tuesday included two small (size 1) storm slabs that were ski cut and skier-triggered on a steeper east-facing slope in the alpine. The slab depths were just over 20 cm.Monday's reports included a few small (size 1-1.5) skier-triggered wind slabs and storm slabs as well as small ski cut and natural loose dry releases. These all occurred in steeper terrain on a wide range of aspects.On Saturday there were several reports of solar-triggered loose wet avalanches as well as cornice and glide crack failures up to size 3 on predominantly south to west aspects at all elevations.Last Friday there were reports of natural cornices failures up to size 2 on north and northeast facing slopes in the alpine that had little effect on the slopes below.
Snowpack Summary
Recent light snowfalls (10-20 cm) have been followed by warm daytime temperatures and glimpses of sun, setting up a couple of thin storm snow layers over temperature and sun crusts on south aspects. On shaded aspects at higher elevations, the recent snow has buried a couple of surface hoar layers now found up to 40 cm deep. Mainly small loose dry releases have been observed on the shallowest of these layers (down about 15cm), while the deepest (down 40 cm) has been the failure plane in a few slab avalanches. New snow amounts taper with elevation and below 1900 m, minimal accumulations have buried a supportive crust on all aspects. This crust will likely break down with daytime warming, becoming moist in the afternoon. Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with a surface avalanche stepping down, large cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets.
Problems
Storm Slabs
New storm slabs will begin to build under the influence of strong southeast winds at high elevations. Lee slopes will be the first to build new slabs while rain promotes loose wet activity at lower elevations.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets near ridge crests and roll-overs.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 22nd, 2018 2:00PM