Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 21st, 2016–Jan 22nd, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

A warm and windy storm will arrive today. Avalanche danger will increase through the day as snow and wind add to the load over a persistent weak layer.

Weather Forecast

A weak "pineapple express" will arrive today. Today expect flurries, alpine temps of -3 and moderate S'ly winds. By Friday morning we expect up to 25cm of new snow. Friday will bring another 20cm of snow, freezing levels rising to 1700m and strong SW winds. On Sat expect flurries, with lowering freezing levels and gusty winds at ridgetop.

Snowpack Summary

A soft slab that sits on the January 4th interface, down ~40cm. This interface is variable; with the largest surface hoar below 1700m. It appears to be touchiest in our region on steep S-SW aspects where the surface hoar sits on a sun crust. On other aspects it sits on ~20cm of loose facets. Moderate S'ly winds yesterday formed pockets of windslab.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2.5 was accidentally triggered by skiers on Tuesday on a S aspect at 2500m. It was 40-50cm deep, 40m wide and ran 200m. Only 3 size 1.5 natural avalanches were observed yesterday, but on Tuesday numerous size 2 natural avalanches occurred from all aspects and ran onto the avalanche fans. Sluffing continues to occur when skiing steep slopes.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The incoming storm has the potential to add significant load to a variable and hard to predict weak layer (see details tab). It has been easily triggered where a sun crust is buried, but is also expected to become more reactive at lower elevations.

Ride slopes one at a time and spot your partners from safe locations.Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3