Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Thursday: Expect a mix of sun and cloud. Temperatures will be cool in the morning, but warm to around -3 with the sun’s influence. Expect light northwest winds and no precipitation.Friday: Clouds should build overnight and linger through the day. Light flurries are possible, focussed primarily on west facing terrain. Winds should turn westerly and pick up to moderate values with alpine temperatures reaching -5.Saturday: Clouds linger but precipitation dissipates. Winds turn southwesterly and ease with alpine temperatures reaching around -2.

A natural cycle has passed with windslab avalanches at treeline and in the alpine up to size 2.5 and loose wet sluffing at lower elevations.

Dribs and drabs of light precipitation continues. Consistent southwesterly winds have maintained snow transport, and many areas show layers of windslab over windslab. Some places have seen swirling winds creating cross and reverse loading on isolated slopes. The deepest storm interface (from the very beginning of this storm cycle) includes a huge variety of old surfaces from facets to crusts and isolated pockets of surface hoar (sheltered treeline and below treeline). There is very limited information with regards to this interface, with the only results suggesting reactivity in sheltered, shady treeline and below treeline slopes (likely associated with the preserved surface hoar pockets). I would stress the importance of digging down to find and test weak layers. A cautious and curious approach is critical.A strong mid-pack currently overlies a weak base layer of facets/depth hoar. Triggering of this basal weakness may still be possible from thin spots, rocky outcrops or under the weight of larger triggers such as cornice fall.