Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Dec 12th, 2012 9:14AM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeSummary
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period
Weather Forecast
A series of frontal systems will affect the area for the next few days.Thursday: Strong to gale NW winds. Alpine temp -6. Moderate snow. Friday: Moderate W winds. Alpine temp -7. Light snow.Saturday: Light winds. Alpine temp -10. Moderate to heavy snow.
Avalanche Summary
We have no reports of avalanches during Monday or Tuesday, but that may be due to a lack of observations more than a lack of avalanches. In the NW Coastal region, the basal weakness was triggered by heavy loads (cornice fall, surface avalanches stepping down and explosives) to produce very large avalanches. Strong W-NW winds triggered a natural avalanche cycle inland on Sunday, with several slabs to size 2 failing behind cross-loaded ribs and gullies. A size 2.5 slab from the headwall above the Hankin-Evelyn area is suspected to have failed on the Nov crust/facet layer.
Snowpack Summary
New and buried wind slabs exist on a variety of slopes due to strong, variable winds over the last week. In the alpine, some areas are scoured to rock, while you may find 2 m + in windloaded areas. A rain crust formed a couple of days ago on low elevation slopes. Surface hoar is buried in the upper pack at treeline in isolated sheltered areas. We haven’t had any recent reports of reactivity on this layer. A November crust/facet layer near the base of the snowpack has the potential for deep releases, particularly from a thin-spot trigger point or with a heavy trigger like cornice fall or a surface avalanche stepping down. Expect new storm slabs and wind slabs to develop during the remainder of the week as a series of fronts hits the region.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs are likely to be encountered on many slopes. Be alert for new and buried wind slabs behind ridges and ribs. Storm/wind slabs could step down to trigger a persistent weakness.
Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended without advanced training and extensive experience.>Travel one person at a time on all slopes capable of producing an avalanche.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
A deeply buried facet/crust weakness exists. A heavy trigger such as cornice fall or a surface avalanche stepping down could produce a very large and destructive avalanche.
Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 13th, 2012 2:00PM