Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number and quality of field observations

The active weather pattern will continue as a fairly strong and moist southwest flow remains aimed at the region. Monday: Light to moderate snowfall, intensifying throughout the day / Light southwest winds intensifying to strong values throughout the day / Freezing level at 1000m Monday night and Tuesday: Up to 20cm of snow / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1000m Wednesday: Light to moderate snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1000m

Avalanche observations have been very limited in recent days. This may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. Periods of heavy snow or rain, strong ridge winds, and warming will probably tip off a natural avalanche cycle in parts of the region. We could see wet activity at lower elevations with storm/wind slabs where snow accumulates. There is also potential for deep persistent weaknesses to be overloaded producing isolated very large and deep slides.

Continued snowfall has contributed to ongoing storm slab development. Warm temperatures have promoted rapid slab settlement, while rain has created wet loose surface snow at lower elevations. Southwest winds continue to build slabs on leeward slopes with cornices overhead in exposed treeline and alpine terrain. A crust/ surface hoar combo buried in the middle of January may be around 50-80 cm deep now. In the mid-pack, a crust weakness buried in mid-December seems to be unreactive for the time being. Near the base of the snowpack is the crust-facet combination buried in November that could remain problematic, especially in shallower snowpack areas with heavy loading and warming.