Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday

Overnight and Tuesday: Some Pacific moisture (3-5 cm) is expected to push into the Northern coastal areas and then slide inland. Mostly overcast with light precipitation, cold alpine temperatures, and moderate to strong Southwest winds. Freezing levels at about 500 metres.Wednesday: Overcast with light precipitation and light winds. Freezing level about 500 metres and alpine temperatures around -15.Thursday: Overcast with a chance of sunny breaks in the afternoon. Light Easterly winds and temperatures around -15 in the alpine.

We have a report of size 3.5 natural avalanche from a Northwest aspect that released down 100-150 cm on the deeply buried February persistent weak layer. It is suspected that this avalanche was triggered sympathetically to a size 1.5 solar release on an adjacent slope.

The area has received 75 to 150cm of snow over the past 5 to 7 days. The recent storm snow arrived with strong winds and produced wind slabs at tree line and above and increasing the depth on the slab that now overlies the March persistent weak layer. In addition, much of the recent storm snow has fallen on a melt freeze and/or rain crusts that exist in most parts of the region below 1200 metres. The March weak layer is a combination of hard wind-scoured slab surfaces in exposed terrain, facets and/or surface hoar in sheltered and north aspects, and sun crust on steep solar aspects. This layer is widespread throughout the forecast region and is now buried close to 150cm in most parts of the area. A late January/early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is still showing up in snowpack tests with moderate to hard shear tests. It appears to be dormant for the time being, but a sudden increase in load, a cornice failure, or a large rainfall event could "wake up" this layer and result in a large destructive avalanche.