Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 13th, 2017 3:20PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Storm Slabs.

mgrist, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Avoid steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day. Don't let your guard down with warm temperatures and sunny skies.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Change is coming on Tuesday evening and then very wet on Wednesday - Thursday. TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain beginning in the evening / High temperatures to +6 Celsius / Strong southerly winds (50-70 Km/hr) / Freezing level around 2800 m. WEDNESDAY: Rain (60-100mm) / Strong southerly winds becoming moderate / Freezing level around 2200m. THURSDAY: Rain (30-50mm) / Moderate southeasterly winds / Freezing level around 1900 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new observed.

Snowpack Summary

The snow from late last week (15-25cm) has consolidated well at treeline and below. This makes 50-70 cm of cumulative storm snow which so far has been bonding well to a knife hard crust buried Feb 3rd. That said, recent snowpack tests near Cypress ski area gave sudden planar, propagation-likely results down 70cm on the Feb 3rd widespread crust layer. This may become a sliding layer on Wednesday with the heavy rain.In the alpine, where all of the precipitation has fallen as snow, the storm slabs have taken longer to settle out and still are a concern: Dig down to test the bond of the more recent snow layers. The mid and lower snowpack are settled and well bonded with the average snowpack depth at treeline 250-300 cm.

Problems

Loose Wet

Just because it's mild out doesn't mean you can get complacent: Avoid steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Treeline and above on northerly aspects will have small storm slabs (in some places sitting on a crust). Storm slabs in the alpine will be possibly more reactive than shown here, especially on northerly aspects.

Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed touchy slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 14th, 2017 2:00PM