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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 13th, 2017–Feb 14th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Avoid steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day. Don't let your guard down with warm temperatures and sunny skies.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Change is coming on Tuesday evening and then very wet on Wednesday - Thursday. TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain beginning in the evening / High temperatures to +6 Celsius / Strong southerly winds (50-70 Km/hr) / Freezing level around 2800 m. WEDNESDAY: Rain (60-100mm) / Strong southerly winds becoming moderate / Freezing level around 2200m. THURSDAY: Rain (30-50mm) / Moderate southeasterly winds / Freezing level around 1900 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new observed.

Snowpack Summary

The snow from late last week (15-25cm) has consolidated well at treeline and below. This makes 50-70 cm of cumulative storm snow which so far has been bonding well to a knife hard crust buried Feb 3rd. That said, recent snowpack tests near Cypress ski area gave sudden planar, propagation-likely results down 70cm on the Feb 3rd widespread crust layer. This may become a sliding layer on Wednesday with the heavy rain.In the alpine, where all of the precipitation has fallen as snow, the storm slabs have taken longer to settle out and still are a concern: Dig down to test the bond of the more recent snow layers. The mid and lower snowpack are settled and well bonded with the average snowpack depth at treeline 250-300 cm.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Just because it's mild out doesn't mean you can get complacent: Avoid steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Treeline and above on northerly aspects will have small storm slabs (in some places sitting on a crust). Storm slabs in the alpine will be possibly more reactive than shown here, especially on northerly aspects.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed touchy slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2