Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday

20-30cm of new snowfall is expected at higher elevations from the storm Monday overnight. Alpine winds are expected to be strong from the SW and freezing levels could reach as high as 2000m during the storm. A ridge of high pressure should replace the storm early Tuesday morning. A mix of sun and cloud is expected for Tuesday with freezing levels around 1300m and light alpine wind. The next storm pulse is currently forecast to arrive Tuesday overnight and another 5-15cm of snowfall is forecast for Wednesday. Freezing levels are expected to reach around 1700m and alpine winds are forecast to be moderate from the southeast. Unsettled conditions and light snowfall are expected for Thursday.

On Sunday, a natural size 3 wind slab avalanche was reported.  The slab was 50cm thick and ran on an old reloaded bed surface in a shallow snowpack area.  Ski cutting on Sunday produced size 1 soft slabs within the recent storm slabs.  Lots of cracking was reported but limited propagation.  On Saturday, a ski cut produced a size 1 slab avalanche in a leeward feature on a northeast aspect at 2200m. The slab was 10-20cm thick. On Friday, ski cuts produced size 1 loose wet avalanches at treeline in the recent storm snow. Rain-soaked lower elevations are unlikely to see much in the way of avalanche activity on Tuesday, but storm slab avalanches are expected to be reactive to human-triggering at higher elevations with ongoing snowfall and wind continuing overnight Monday. Wind loaded features should be the biggest concern but a more widespread storm slab avalanche problem may develop in the deepest snowfall areas. Cornices are reported to large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.

30-60cm of new snow has accumulated in the last week with largest amounts to south of the region.  This new snow overlies a thick melt-freeze crust which extends into the alpine.  Moderate wind transport and cornice development have both been reported over the weekend and Monday night's storm will continue to develop wind slabs and cornices.  In the deepest snowfall areas, a more widespread storm slab may become reactive with the additional loading overnight.  Moist snow is being reported up to around 1800m on Sunday.  Rain will continue to soak lower elevations overnight.  The weak surface hoar layer from early January can be found down over a meter and is still reactive in isolated snowpack tests but triggering an avalanche on this layer has become unlikely.