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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 11th, 2015–Apr 12th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

The hazard may go higher than forecast if precipitation amounts are greater than expected. If you have field observations to share here, we'd love to hear from you.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The cold front has passed through the area leaving cool unsettled conditions.  Expect convective showers over the next few days.SUNDAY:  A cool unstable air mass will continue to bring precipitation to the region overnight Saturday and Sunday. 10 to 15cm of precipitation, freezing level around 110 m and winds moderate to strong from the South West.MONDAY:  Cloudy with flurries and/or rain.  Freezing level will rise to 1600m and moderate to strong winds from the South West.TUESDAY:  A brief break in the weather pattern. Cloudy with sunny periods, freezing level around 1200m, winds light to moderate from the South West.

Avalanche Summary

No reports of avalanche activity from yesterday.  This is most likely as a result of few field observations. We expect wind slab activity with new loading and strong winds.  Solar aspect may become active again when the sun come out.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 30cm of storm snow now rests on a variety of crusts and old surfaces including surface hoar and facets that formed in sheltered locations during the recent clear weather. Moderate to strong south west winds are redistributing the storm snow into wind slabs on the lee sides of ridge tops. A facet/crust layer that was buried in mid-March is now approximately 50-100 cm down.  This remains a concern in the region because of it's potential for very large avalanches. Cornices are now large and mature and may collapse with increased loading, possibly triggering the deeply buried weak layer.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent storm snow has been blown onto lee slopes at treeline and above.  These soft slabs may be very reactive to skier or rider traffic.
Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.>Highmark or enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid slopes with glide cracks.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

This slab has not been active recently, and may soon disappear as a problem, but for the time being it's worth keeping in mind.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Cornices

New snow loading and warming temperatures may trigger cornice failures, definitely something to be aware of.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4