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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2015–Feb 15th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

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Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will develop and bring mainly clear skies for the forecast period. Sunday: Clearing throughout the day / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at about 2000m Monday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at 2000m Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at 2800m

Avalanche Summary

There has been recent loose wet avalanche activity reported from the Tenquille Lake area in the north of the region. I get the feeling this was just the tip of the iceberg given the ongoing warm temperatures. I expect thin wind slabs could be reactive in the high alpine and loose wet avalanche are probably still popping on steep alpine slopes that see brief periods of sun.

Snowpack Summary

On Friday, rain continued to soak the upper snowpack. Depending on the air temperature, snow surfaces now appear moist or refrozen. Dense new wind slabs may exist in lee terrain at the highest elevations where snow fell instead of rain. Much of the terrain below treeline is below threshold for avalanche activity.Continued warm temperatures are promoting settlement in the upper snowpack. The hard crust that formed earlier in February can be found up to 100cm below the surface at alpine elevations. Although no recent avalanches have been observed at this interface, professionals are still keeping a close eye on it as long as warm temperatures persist. Cornices are reported to be large and fragile.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Warming and solar radiation will increase the likelihood of pushy loose wet avalanches. Watch for triggering on steep, sun-exposed slopes. Warming may also promote destructive wet slab avalanches in isolated terrain.
Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Be alert to conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Large cornices will become weak with forecast warming and solar radiation. Use extra caution around ridge crests.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4