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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 19th, 2012–Jan 21st, 2012
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

Significant amounts of new snow and warming will set up very dangerous avalanche conditions.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

Heavy precipitation is expected to start on Friday afternoon. The freezing level is expected to remain at valley bottom in this region, although temperatures will climb to around -5C. Overnight, accumulations will be heavy and strong southwesterly winds will blow. Around 20-30 cm dense new snow is expected to be on the ground by Saturday morning. On Saturday, further heavy snowfall is anticipated, as unstable, convective air moves in behind the storm. Temperatures will cool slightly and strong SW winds will continue to blow. On Sunday, another punchy winter storm system will bring further heavy snowfall.

Avalanche Summary

Only loose snow activity was observed on Thursday. I anticipate a significant avalanche cycle will occur with heavy amounts of dense new snow expected to fall on existing cold, low density snow.

Snowpack Summary

30-80 cm very low density snow has accumulated over the last few days. The Coquihalla and areas around Hope have seen the highest amounts. Winds recently picked up into moderate range from the southwest - just enough to create some soft slabs on lee slopes in exposed areas. Below the storm snow lies a rain crust at lower elevations (up to around 1800 m) and old wind slabs in exposed areas at higher elevations. Weak layers lower in the snowpack have generally ceased to be of concern, except perhaps in thin rocky areas.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Significant accumulations of denser new snow are expected to fall on the existing cold, low density snow surface. This will set up highly unstable snowpack conditions.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Wind Slabs

Shifting winds have started to redistribute the low density snow into soft slabs on lee features in exposed terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4