Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - East.
You may be able to trigger a small, fresh wind slab or older more stubborn wind slab near or above treeline elevation. Avoid wind-loaded slopes on any aspect and continue to avoid travel under or near corniced slopes. Warming temperatures near treeline and below will moisten recent snow, creating the potential for loose wet avalanches where wet snow is more than a few inches deep. Avoid steep or unsupported slopes.
Detailed Forecast
Updated Wednesday morning due to lighter winds and less warming than forecast. Moderate, but not strong winds are forecast for the east slopes of the Cascades on Wednesday. Warming is more significant than anticipated.
Moderate westerly winds will create small, fresh wind slabs, transporting some of the recent snow still available for transport closer to the Cascade crest on Wednesday. Expect these slabs to be reactive near and above treeline with easterly aspects favored for wind-loading.
Old wind slabs were small to large and found on a variety of aspects. They will continue trending from stubborn toward unreactive on Wednesday as warming helps these already stiff and well bonded slabs to heal more rapidly.
Loose wet avalanches have been added as a problem near and below treeline. These avalanches are likely to be small given minimal new snow to work with on the east slopes. Watch for roller balls or more than a few inches of moistened snow, particularly on solar aspects where the sun begins to melt recent snow, where steep or unsupported slopes should be avoided.
Large cornices exist along ridgelines. Warming temperatures will make cornice failure more likely on Wednesday, so continue to give cornices a wide berth and avoid travel directly below corniced slopes.
The avalanche hazard will be lower in areas receiving less precipitation further east of the Cascade Crest.
Snowpack Discussion
This has been a long and windy period for the east slopes of the Cascades where gusty westerly winds blew snow around from Sunday night through Tuesday, continuing to creating wind slabs on all aspects near treeline and above in the northeast Cascades. Winds were generally decreasing to the light to moderate range by Tuesday. Up to 8" of snow now sits and is well bonded to a crust formed by a rain event on February 4th up to 5800-6800 feet in the northeast Cascades, extending to slightly higher elevations further south. Significantly less snow sits on the crust further east of the crest and also to the south, decreasing wind slab potential in these areas.
Wind slabs were identified throughout the near and above treeline terrain, but they were pretty stiff and well bonded in the alpine, trending the hazard from stubborn toward unreactive on Tuesday.
A natural avalanche cycle has been reported in many areas from Monday’s (1/29) warm and wet weather. Rain occurred along the east slopes as far north as Holden, WA.
Scattered observations from the last week of January found buried surface hoar on top of the 1/16 crust. This persistent weak layer was found or thought to be the cause of several avalanches. Extra caution should be taken when traveling in areas further east of the crest where this layer may survive. Snow profiles and snowpack tests are the only means to identify and locate this layer.
Observations
North
On Tuesday, snow professionals in the Washington Pass area reported lots of wind-effected snow, which was pretty stiff, but well-bonded, producing very resistant results in shear tests. Closer to the Cascade crest there is 8" of snow available for wind transport. Also of note, the party witnessed evidence of produced a very large avalanche (D2.5) in Spire Gulley, which was likely produce by cornice fall triggering a wind slab, which then entrained a lot of loose and wet snow during the slide cycle on Sunday.Â
On Monday, snow professionals in the Washington Pass area reported a recent maximum rain/snow line of 6,800 ft. Subsequent snowfall prevented much refreezing of the wet snow. Winds were unusually gusty and variable with no dominant wind direction and some wind slab was present into the below treeline zone. The party triggered a small wind slab quite low in the terrain. They messaged a high level of uncertainty regarding reactivity and location of wind slabs in this zone. Glide activity was also evident to 6000'.
On Sunday, snow professionals at the Barron Yurt near Hart's Pass reported stormy conditions with denser snowfall increasing the likelihood for storm slabs during the day due to rising temperatures in and around the 6000' level. Moderate winds were continuing to transport snow onto lee slopes near and above treeline. No deeper instabilities were noted in snowpack tests. Observations were limited in this terrain due to poor visibility. On Sunday in terrain further to the east, a wet loose cycle was noted below 6000'.Â
On Saturday, snow professionals at the Barron Yurt near Hart's Pass reported about 6" of new snowfall over the preceding 24 hours. Touchy wind slabs were present near and especially above treeline with moderate to strong W-SW winds transporting new and recent snow onto lee slopes. Storm slabs were generally unlikely to trigger. The 1/16 crust was 4 to 5 feet down. Similar conditions were reported Friday in this area.Â
Central
An avalanche professional traveling in Icicle Creek Thursday found 6-8†of settled snow well bonded to the 1/29 crust. Observations demonstrated a strong upper snowpack. No buried surface hoar was found in this location.
On Tuesday, Mission Ridge Pro Patrol identified several layers of concern in this regionally shallower snowpack. These layers should be watched during future loading events. Similar basal weak layers were found in the nearby shallow snowpack of Blewett Pass.
South
No recent observations
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1