Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Use caution in higher elevations where possibly greater new snow may accumulate, especially lee slopes near ridges. Watch for areas of wet snow at mid elevations, and during daytime warming.
Detailed Forecast
A frontal passage Friday night should cause some new snow, but only light amounts are expected. Initial rain changing to snow should leave good bonding of new snow to the old wet snow surface.Â
Watch for areas where new snow has been transported by wind to lee slopes at higher elevations along ridges. Also, watch for cornice development that may be soft and sensitive to trigger or release from daytime warming. Â
Most areas near and below treeline in the Olympics do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.
Snowpack Discussion
The storm snow from mid-March has melted in the Hurricane Ridge area and those areas below treeline, amid warm weather or rain events over the past two weeks, including the mid 50 degree sunshine the past few days.Â
This has left the remaining snow, having undergone several melt-freeze cycles of late and should be well consolidated at this point. There have been no reports by rangers, or other observers, of any loose wet slide activity over the past few days.
The current snowpack, or lack of, should be well prepared to receive the small amounts of new snow expected over the next few days.
While the snowpack remains meager along Hurricane Ridge, there is likely only enough snow for avalanches near and above treeline on the higher peaks of the Olympics.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1