Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
The storm snow buried a surface hoar / crust layer, which is variable in its distribution, but found to be most sensitive to triggering at and below tree line. Enter new terrain, that does not show signs of previous avalanches, cautiously.
Weather Forecast
Charge your heated sock batteries and plan to ski in the sun, it's gonna get cold!
Monday will see mainly sunny skies with periods of cloud, 15-25km/hr variable winds and an alpine high of -23, as the Arctic ridge of high pressure slides into our region bringing cold and clear conditions for the next few days. Gradually warming up by the weekend
Snowpack Summary
40-60cm of storm snow over the last few days, with the higher amount being on the West side of the Park. Wind affected snow in the alpine and down into tree line. The Feb 15 surface hoar (2-8mm) is down 40-70cm and most prevalent below tree line. The Jan 29 surface hoar is down 70-120cm and breaking down.
Avalanche Summary
Reports of skiers triggering the Storm Slab, tree line and below in steep terrain.
On Saturday, natural avalanche activity was observed up to size 3.0 and artillery controlled avalanche results up to size 3.5. The Feb 15 surface hoar layer was active during this cycle, pulling slabs at lower elevations.
Confidence
Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
~60cm of recent snow, moderate to strong SW winds and warm temps have formed storm slabs, which bury the Feb 15 surface hoar (2-8mm) and a crust on steep solar aspects. The slabs may be sensitive to human triggering.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and tree line. Storm snow has formed reactive slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Loose Dry
On Monday the sun could trigger point releases out of solar facing, steep rocky terrain, the 'first kiss of the sun' after the storm, which could entrain addition mass as it travels and trigger deeper instabilities.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
- Loose dry/moist avalanches could trigger the storm slab, resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2