Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 2nd, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.
swerner,
Avalanche Canada
New snow and strong winds are building fresh and reactive storm slabs. Natural and rider triggered avalanches are likely on Thursday.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
Low confidence in snowfall amounts on Thursday as there may be some enhancement due to the timing of the strong NW flow and the approaching warm front.
Wednesday Night: Trace of new snow and strong westerly winds at ridgetop. Alpine temperatures near -6 and freeing levels 600 m.
Thursday: Snow heavy at times 15 to 20 cm in the alpine with mixed precipitation/ rain at lower elevations. Ridgetop winds will be strong from the southwest and alpine temperatures near -1. Freezing levels rising to 1400 m
Friday: Mixed precipitation up to 30 mm throughout the day. Alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels drop to 1000 m.Â
Saturday: Light snowfall amounts and freezing levels drop to 800 m. Alpine temperatures near -5 with a moderate southwest wind.Â
Avalanche Summary
By Wednesday morning natural size 1 and explosive triggered size 2 storm slabs were reported. Continued snow/ rain and warming will continue to drive the elevated avalanche danger on Thursday and storm slabs will be likely.Â
Snowpack Summary
20 to 40 cm of storm snow blanketed the region by Wednesday. Fresh and reactive storm slabs exist. This now brings 40 to 70 cm of recent snow above a variety of surfaces that formed during the end of January. This interface is made up of a crust, facets, and surface hoar. The crust can be found at or below treeline as well as on south-facing terrain in the alpine. In isolated sheltered terrain at treeline surface hoar has formed along with facets above this crust. Where a crust did not form facets will likely be found.
The January 19th surface hoar layer can still be found down 40 to 60 at treeline and above in sheltered terrain. Recent reports indicate that it is becoming less of a concern.Â
Terrain and Travel
- Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
- Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
- Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
- Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
Problems
Storm Slabs
20 to 40 cm of storm snow has formed fresh and reactive storm slabs. Sensitivity could be greater in areas where storm and wind slab has formed over a crust, facets, or surface hoar.
Loose-dry avalanches and sloughing will likely be seen on steeper terrain features in the alpine/ treeline where the new snow falls on a crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Fluctuating freezing levels may bring rain rather than snow at lower elevations. Wet loose avalanches may be widespread, especially from steeper slopes with an underlying crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 3rd, 2022 4:00PM
