Uncertainty surrounding a dynamic freezing level will likely keep alpine danger ratings elevated through the week.
Confidence
Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Tuesday looks dry and warm with a freezing level around 1800m. Winds are expected to be light at all elevations. Wednesday also looks dry, but winds are expected to kick up a bit, look for moderate to strong SW winds at ridgetop and light variable winds at treeline. The freezing level should climb to around 2200m by Wednesday afternoon. Strong SW winds at ridgetop should continue into Thursday as the freezing level continues to climb. The freezing level could be as high as 3000m by Thursday evening.
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday avalanche activity was limited to pin wheeling from solar aspects. At the height of the storm in the northern portion of the region avalanches ran to size 3 on the early February crust. Wet avalanches below 1950m were also observed. In the southern portion of the region several small glide avalanche releases were observed on rock slabs below treeline.
Snowpack Summary
The wet warm storm produced 50 to 80cm of snow above 2200m in the north of the region and around 30cm in the southern portion of the region accompanied by moderate to strong winds out of the SW through SE . This snow rests on the stout early February rain crust. The bond to this crust continues to strengthen with ongoing warm temperatures. (We have not received any reports of avalanches failing below this crust.) The snow is wet below 2000m and saturated below treeline. Warm temps this week should continue to help all the new storm snow to settle and stabilize.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.