Wind is the major weather factor to keep a close eye on. Even moderate wind speeds can quickly build fresh wind slabs reactive to human triggers.
Confidence
Low - Wind speed and direction is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Monday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate westerly winds / High of -20 C.Tuesday: Mostly sunny / Light northwesterly winds / High of -20 C. Wednesday: Sunny / Light northwesterly winds / High of -17 C.
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanche observations have been reported in this region, however, the likelihood of human triggered avalanches may increase if the winds increase to moderate.
Snowpack Summary
If the winds increase to moderate Sunday night, there may be fresh wind slabs in lee features below ridge tops in the alpine. The cold temperatures will have promoted surface faceting, which probably means the top layer of snow is soft in sheltered areas. Treeline snow depths around Elkford are only around 60 cm. I suspect they are slightly higher in places like the Flathead, but generally conditions are lean. Threshold snow depths for avalanches have been exceeded in the alpine and at treeline, but not below treeline. In shallow areas, the snowpack is most likely facetted (sugary) throughout, and any crusts have probably broken down already. In deeper areas, you can probably find the mid-November crust buried under half a metre or so of snow. Early season hazards such as stumps, rocks, and open creeks are still a major concern.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.