Avalanche Forecast

Expect clear skies and valley cloud on Monday as the dry ridge of high pressure holds on for one more day. A strong inversion is forecast to deliver alpine temperatures of about 5' celsius. Below 1800m, temperatures should remain well below freezing. Monday's ridgetop winds should remain light from the northeast. The ridge should start to break down on Tuesday with increased cloud developing throughout the day. By Wednesday we may see trace amounts of new snow. Ridgetop winds are expected to be moderate from the southwest on Tuesday, and then strong and southwesterly on Wednesday. Freezing levels should hover around valley bottom for both days.

No recent avalanches have been reported. Given our current inversion, I would expect some loose wet avalanche activity on steep, sun-exposed slopes. If you are out in the mountains, please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack observations have been very limited as the season commences. Initial reports suggest there is enough snow above around 1700m for avalanches to occur. Terrain below treeline is reported to be below threshold for avalanche activity.Current surfaces are likely a mix of stubborn wind slabs in exposed higher elevation terrain, and loose faceted snow and surface hoar in more sheltered areas. Depending on the time of day, steep south-facing slopes at higher elevations may be moist or re-frozen. About 15cm below the surface you may find a thick rain crust which exists up to at least treeline elevation. Where it exists, this crust has added strength to the current snowpack. That said, the combination of a crust, facets and surface hoar could prove to be a significant weak layer when it finally snows again. In general there is a lot of uncertainty regarding snowpack structure throughout the region. I would dig down and test for weak layers before committing to any steeper lines.