In areas with poor snowpack structure dense surface slabs lie upon a persistent weak layer, and could be human triggered on steep wind loaded slopes that did not slide during the last storm cycle.
In areas where dense surface slabs lie upon a base of weak faceted snow, some potential remains for humans to trigger slab avalanches with crown depths of two to four feet. These slabs are likely to be more sensitive to larger triggers like snow mobiles.
A significant storm system will impact our area as a low pressure system moves towards the region in a zonal flow. Snowfall will begin before dawn. The heaviest snowfall and winds are expected during the afternoon and evening hours when warm moist air moves in from the Pacific, ahead of a passing cold front. Temperatures will warm well into the 20s in the mountains during the day. Rain may mix with snow in some lower elevation locations. West winds will average 25 to 35 with gusts to near 60 miles per hour.The general avalanche hazard will increase at all elevations as the day progresses. The hazard will be MOERATE during the early morning hours and will increase to CONSIDERABLE. Strong west winds will create wind slabs on slick old snow surfaces and rapidly load an existing snowpack with poor structure and weak persistent layers. Surface slabs up to two feet in depth are likely to be easily triggered by humans and release naturally. In areas with poor snowpack structure these slabs could step down to the ground with depths of four to six feet. Monitor conditions closely and expect dangerous conditions to rapidly develop during the afternoon hours.
