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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2018–Mar 21st, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

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Low Danger does not mean no danger. Continue to use normal travel practices. Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are very difficult to trigger, but the potential for high consequences lurks deep in the snowpack. Weak layers buried deep in old snow have been responsible for fatalities and serious injuries over the past month.

Detailed Forecast

Low Danger means that triggering avalanches is unlikely but not impossible. While Deep Persistent Slabs are very difficult to trigger, the resulting avalanche could leave little chance of survival. Persistent weak layers have been the cause of avalanche fatalities or serious injuries every weekend for the past 4 weeks. Recent test results and avalanches show that these layers are still present, though getting harder to trigger. The best way to stay safe from the potential consequences is to limit your exposure to large avalanche paths. Stay out of start zones and large, complex avalanche paths.

Avoid traveling near or under areas with glide cracks and stay away from large cornices. Increasing cloud cover should limit the potential for Loose Wet avalanche activity on Wednesday.

Snowpack Discussion

Expect mild temperatures and increasing high cloud cover on Wednesday. A dusting of light snow on Saturday and Sunday followed a warm, sunny stretch at the end of the work-week. Many sunny slopes have stout crusts in the top foot of the snowpack. At Mt. Baker, 6 inches of snow accumulated Wednesday, which quickly melted on sunny slopes. Mid to upper elevation, northerly slopes are staying soft and dry.

Below this most recent crust most observations indicate strong layers of dry snow intermixed with various melt freeze crusts. A more widespread deep persistent layer continues to be found 5-7 feet below the snow surface in the Mt. Baker zone. A thin layer of weak sugary facets have been observed just above a stout crust (2/8) on some aspects. Some snowpack tests (Compression Test and Extended Column Tests) will not be able to appropriately assess this deep weak layer. Deep Tap tests and Propagation Saw tests will yield the most reliable results. While snowpack tests are good for demonstrating the presence of a weak layer, they are not a decision-making tool to determining whether or not a slope is safe.

Observations

Baker

On Saturday, NWAC Observer Matt Primomo reported a large glide avalanche on a rock face on the south aspect of Mt Herman. The slope is known to commonly produce glide avalanches during warm conditions.

NWAC professional observer Lee Lazzara traveled to Ptarmigan Ridge Friday. New and recent wet loose avalanches, generally small, were visible on steep sunny slopes. Older wind slab found near and above treeline was unreactive. A thin sun crust from Thursday had extended it's reach to W-NW aspects. The 2/8 layer was down 6 feet in this area.

Lee was near Glacier Creek Thursday and found 3 to 8 inches of new snow well bonded to a forming melt-freeze crust. The 2/8 layer was down 6 feet in this area.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.