Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

This week's new snow and strong winds have added a lot of weight to a fragile snowpack. It is likely that a person can trigger a large avalanche failing on a weak layer of snow buried 1 to 3' deep. Approach steep terrain with caution, and avoid lingering in runout zones below steeper slopes. This setup has been slow to heal, and will remain reactive through the weekend.

___________________________________

CHUGACH STATE PARK: Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in Chugach State Park. Human-triggered avalanches are likely in wind-loaded terrain, and avalanches may step down into deeper persistent weak layers, producing large and dangerous slides. See the updated outlook from Chugach State Park for more info.

Join us Friday, Feb. 13, for the annual Snowball fundraiser! This event is a collaboration with the Alaska Avalanche School and is always a fun way to support two nonprofit organizations that provide avalanche information and education in our area. Silent auction, beverages, hors d'oeuvres, and music by Hope Social Club! Tickets and event info at alaskaavalanche.org

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: We have yet to get a good survey of fresh avalanche activity following Thursday's storm. However, we expect there was a fresh round of natural avalanche activity. We're hoping to get a better look today.

    The weak layer of facets that has been plaguing the area since the beginning of January is still a major concern in the Summit Lake zone. The new and windblown snow from the past few days is adding significant weight to the snowpack, stressing that layer of facets and increasing the likelihood of triggering a large avalanche. We have been tracking avalanche activity on this weak layer across all of our forecast zones, and it seems most reactive in the Summit Lake area. In addition to the widespread natural avalanche cycles we've seen with each loading event, we also continue to see clear signs of instability between storms (see this observation from Manitoba on Thursday, for example).

    These layers do eventually heal with time, but right now, all signs are pointing to an increased risk of triggering an avalanche. These persistent weak layers can give misleading feedback, so don't expect to see clear warning signs as you travel, even when conditions are dangerous. For now, the best way to manage this problem is to limit spending time on or below steep terrain.

    (1/30/2026)

    Natural avalanche activity on Moose Mtn. on the north end of the Summit Lake zone.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The new and windblown snow from earlier in the week has had a day to heal, and it is becoming less likely that a person will run into trouble with that layer. However, since the storm came in slightly upside-down and buried a variety of untrustworthy surfaces, including crusts and facets, we are still treating it with caution today. This setup will make the new snow a little slower to heal than normal, and there is still a chance a person may trigger an avalanche up to 1 to 2' deep at the new snow/old snow interface. The persistent problem discussed in Problem 1 is driving terrain choices for now, but this is one more piece of the puzzle to be aware of today.

Regions covered