Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Unusually dangerous avalanche conditions still exist despite several days without precipitation. There are good chances a person could trigger a very large avalanche in any of our forecast zones. These avalanches could be triggered from flat terrain below steep slopes or from ridges above. The best way to have a safe day is to stick to low angle slopes and make sure there is nothing steep above you.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: We received a second hand report of a human-triggered avalanche in the Lost Lake area on Friday. There was a very large natural avalanche cycle from Seward to Moose Pass that occurred from last Thursday to Friday with the large storm.

    There is a very weak layer of snow buried 2 to 4' deep throughout zones. Because this weak layer is so sensitive in places, it could be triggered from flat terrain below a steep slope. This is an unusual set-up especially for Turnagain Pass, Girdwood, and Seward, which typically have a stronger snowpack. Yesterday, an observer in Turnagain Pass noticed obvious signs (red flags) that the snowpack is still primed to avalanche, which included a natural avalanche and whumpfing. Temperatures were above 32° F yesterday in the alpine and remained above 32° overnight, which is another red flag. All of this is clear information that the snowpack needs more time. 

    This is a frustrating problem to be dealing with and the weak layer is going to take time to strengthen. The best way to completely avoid this problem is to stick to simple terrain (check out the ATES map for a route planning tool). Simple terrain is less than 30°, is not connected to steeper slopes above, and doesn't have terrain traps like gullies below. If you are heading towards steeper terrain, choose a low angle approach, travel one at a time on steep slopes, and be ready to rescue.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    It looks like winds have calmed as of early this morning in the Seward/Lost Lake area. However, winds have been blowing strong enough to move snow for several days so there are a variety of wind slabs out there that could be up to 2' deep. The fresh ones should be softer and more reactive and the older ones might be more firm and stubborn. Either way they feel like firm snow over softer snow and can be found below ridgelines. If you trigger one of these avalanches, it could be enough weight to trigger one of the larger and more dangerous avalanches discussed above. 

Regions covered