Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

On Monday, you'll encounter rising avalanche danger as the day progresses. The most likely spot where you'll trigger a large, surprising avalanche will be in pockets of drifted snow at middle and upper elevations. The best strategy will be to avoid steeper slopes that appear textured and loaded until the storm has run its course. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Multiple avalanches have been reported in wind-drifted snow over the past two days. Some of these slabs have propagated widely and failed up to 2 feet deep on weak snow from late December. On Monday, these wind-drifted slabs may be easy to trigger - especially as precipitation ramps up and freezing levels increase during the later afternoon/evening hours. Any triggered avalanche has the potential to step down and break larger than expected if it fails on weak snow above a crust. 

    You'll find these wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridges/saddles, below cornices, and under rock and cliff bands. You may also encounter them further down slopes than usual, like mid-slope features, due to recent strong winds. Use visual clues and look for textured surfaces, fresh cornice development, and pillow-like slabs at the surface to help you identify problematic slopes. Pull back and default to less exposed terrain if you notice shooting cracks under your feet or machine. 

     

    (1/6/2024)

    You can trigger similar avalanches on Monday.

    This skier triggered avalanche occured in a wind loaded area on a NE Aspect @ 6000 ft near Blewett Pass on Saturday. This avalanche likely stepped down into old snow from December.

    SS-AS-R2-D2-O

    Photo: Max Steed

Avalanche Discussion

Observers across the region have reported endless signs of instability over the weekend. On Saturday, backcountry travelers in the Blewett Pass area had a close call with a triggered avalanche that broke 1-2 ft deep and propagated widely. This large avalanche occurred on an NE aspect at 6000 ft in a wind loaded area and likely failed on old, faceted snow from December. On Sunday, Katie traveled near Fortune Creek drainage and reported a large, widely propagating avalanche on a solar aspect at 6800 ft. The bed surface is unknown but likely failing on weak snow from late December. She also reported propagating tet results on buried surface hoar about 1.5 ft below the snow surface. 

Saturday's storm brought a wide array of storm totals across the zone. The southwestern parts of the zone near Salmon Lac/ Teanaway received the most with 8-10 inches. Much less was reported at weather stations further north and east.

The snowpack in the zone is made up of a number of potential weak layers and crusts, and the upper crust isn't the only one to consider. The Solstice crust is another layer that has produced large slab avalanches with control work at Mission Ridge on December 30th. Observers reported whumphing collapses from the west side of Jolly Peak at 6,500ft on 1/3, and from 5,000ft in the Enchantments on the 28th. Though we haven't seen many avalanches on these layers yet, we just haven't had much new snow to react as a cohesive slab yet. As slabs become more connected and we add more snow, these slightly deeper layers warrant more consideration.

The snow cover is still shallow, especially further east in the zone and at lower elevations. Expect to encounter exposed creeks, and shallowly buried logs and rocks in many areas. 

If you get out, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

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