Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow and strong winds are going to create dangerous avalanche conditions later today into Monday.  Newly formed storm slabs are going to stress a shallow and weak faceted snowpack and we may see natural avalanches as slopes get rapidly loaded.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees, giving runnouts wide berths as it's possible to remotely trigger an avalanche from the flats below.  Loud audible collapses and shooting cracks are warning signs that you've found unstable snow.  Although it's possible to trigger an avalanche in the new snow, expect that an avalanche will most likely fail on deeper buried persistent weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and strong SW winds will quickly load slopes stressing the shallow faceted weak snowpack that existed before this storm. Stiffer more continuous  slabs across slopes will allow avalanches to break wider than you might expect across terrain features.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees, giving avalanche runouts wide berths as we do expect to see natural avalanches with this storm.  These types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches from the flats below.  If you do trigger an avalanche, there is a good possibility that it will fail on or near the ground creating a large and destructive avalanche.   

    A shallow weak faceted snowpack on NW aspect near treeline will struggle to hold much weight 

    Photo: Andy Bond

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall and strong SW winds will create dangerous storm slabs on all elevations and aspects.  It's possible that you can trigger a storm slab avalanche within the storm snow or at the old snow interface, but the more likely scenario is that it will eventually step down into deeper weak layers near the ground creating a larger more destructive avalanche.   Strong SW winds will create stiffer and thicker slabs near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features.  

    Below treeline, where there may be less slab formation, you may get loose snow avalanches that entrains and gouges all the way down to the ground. These are usually typically harmless, but in consequential terrain, could knock you off your feet taking you into a terrain trap or over a cliff.     

    With strong winds and heavy snowfall forecasted Sunday watch for shooting cracks on the surface as this is an indication of unstable snow.

    Photo: Andy Bond (1/4/24)

Avalanche Discussion

SW winds have ramped up early this morning and are currently in the 20 mph range gusting in the 40's.  Snow is expected to be not too far behind as a potent storm system crosses northern NM. The National Weather Service has un under a Winter Storm Warning with upwards of a foot of snow forecasted to fall by Monday morning combined with strong winds.  It's been an active weather pattern over the last several days with a series of smaller storms bringing 6 to 8 inches of lower-density snow (0.45 SWE). Strong SW winds early this morning are getting a head start drifting snow onto slopes before snow starts to ramp up. 

Before this active weather pattern, the snowpack still remained shallow (2 - 3 feet) and had become weak and faceted throughout.  Newly formed slabs will be the missing ingredient we've had for slab avalanches.  The weak faceted snowpack is going to struggle to hold much weight and some slopes will more than likely reach a tipping point as we should see natural avalanches with this storm, most likely during the overnight hours when we see intense 1-hour snowfall rates.  Unlike other storms this year that have come in with little wind, strong winds that are forecasted with this system will help drive more widespread slab formation across slopes and an increased avalanche danger. 

It's been a slow start to the season as skiing and riding have been less than inspiring.  New snow will improve skiing and riding conditions, but unfortunately, that will also come with increased avalanche danger.  Don't get lured into chasing powder on steeper terrain as it might be best to let Mother Nature run it's course. Sticking to low-angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options over the next several days.   

 

Regions covered