Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It remains possible for you to trigger a large avalanche in drifted snow on east-facing ravines below 5000 ft. Look out for smooth, pillowy snow surfaces to identify potentially unstable snow, and travel on firm wind-textured surfaces to limit your likelihood of triggering an avalanche. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    What and where is it:

    49 hours of sustained westerly winds have averaged 97.4 mph and have redistributed Sunday’s 12 inches of snow onto east-facing aspects. These winds have scoured upper elevations, but lingering sensitive hard slabs may remain below 5000 ft in elevation. You could trigger a large, hard slab avalanche in the most wind-protected areas below ridgelines, underneath cliffs, and in narrow gullies. In many areas, you will likely find a stable, hardened, or wind-scoured snow surface.

    How can you recognize it: 

    Look for areas of rounded pillowy snow to identify surface wind slabs. As you move throughout terrain, watch out for areas of softer snow that may be more reactive. Poor structure is the most likely warning sign you will encounter today, so look for hard strong snow on top of soft, weaker snow below. You can use your ski pole, or a shovel to get more information about snowpack structure and stability. 

    How can you manage it:

    With increasing visibility, visual observations will be your best tool today. Identify areas most likely to harbor lingering wind slabs and discuss how you want to move through terrain. Continue to evaluate surface slabs as you move throughout terrain with informal tests like hand shears as well as paying attention to your boot penetration will help you to assess potential changes of slab character.

Avalanche Discussion

Today is a day to be thoughtful with terrain and travel choices and evaluate conditions as you move throughout terrain. Cold temperatures, extreme wind, and clouds limited observations yesterday, so the forecasting team has some uncertainty this morning. Nearly 50 hours of extreme wind have made finding soft and reactive snow unlikely, and it is entirely possible that you may not find an avalanche problem today and that you will find firm, supportable snow surfaces. 

However, the possibility of finding an isolated large ( D2) wind slab also remains, which has kept the avalanche hazard elevated at moderate. Forecasters discussed how we would be approaching terrain today and it would start with visual observations. We would be looking for pillowy, convex wind slabs as potential areas to avoid as they are likely to be pocketed in terrain so are something we could travel around. These could be firm and unreactive, but if they are in steep, unsupported terrain and have strong-over-weak structure they would be features that we would carefully move around and may avoid altogether depending on the consequence and exposure below. 

At low elevations below 3000 feet, watch out for sensitive pockets of wind-drifted snow. While these might not be large enough to bury you in most areas, they could be large enough to cause a fall or push you into a terrain trap. OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts.

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