Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The winds continue to reshape the snowpack in exposed areas and higher terrain. If you see crazy textures on the snow surface or bump into uneven drifts, then be leery of nearby steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Several days of poking and prodding the new snow around the zone consistently pointed towards one thing: any slabs are likely limited to wind loaded features. Signs of wind transport have not been hard to find. Textured surfaces, wind lipes, large drifts, rime, and scouring have all been reported. We don’t expect that to change on Monday. Several inches more of new snow and increasing winds Sunday night could only add to the issue.

    Look for visual clues like those above, then be skeptical of nearby slopes with firmer, deeper pockets of recent snow. So far, these slabs haven’t been much of a problem, but they could trigger more easily in the tops of chutes, on a convex rollover, or at higher elevations. 

    There’s a slight question about how Sunday night’s snow will react even in sheltered areas. Fortunately, even if it does fail, it should be shallow and small.

    (12/21/2025)

    A small natural wind slab avalanche on Panorama Point. E, 6700ft. This slide like occured 12/19 or 12/20. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Monday should once again provide a break in the stormy weather, but not before another system sweeps across the zone Sunday night. This will add to the snow totals from the past several days. 

It's been great to hear from so many folks this week. With all the observations and the help of our professional partners, we’ve been consistently receiving reports about the new snow. And, while there’s a decent bit of it (15-20 inches and countin) over the most recent crust, it’s generally right-side-up and stable. So far, the only avalanche of note was a small natural wind slab near Panorama Pt on Mt Rainier. This slide likely occurred a few days ago. 

The snowpack generally consists of three parts: the upper new snow over the 12/18 crust, a drier mid-pack, and the lower atmospheric river (AR) snow from earlier this month. This lowest part is likely absent at lower elevations. One interesting note was a freezing fog crust at Mt Rainier and Mt Hood on Sunday. There’s a chance this thin, breakable crust exists elsewhere. 

Even with all the recent snow, the lower elevations are still painfully thin, especially in the forest. Snow depths increase substantially above about 6000-6500ft. No matter where you travel, you’ll probably be surprised by creeks, random holes, Christmas trees, and bushes. 

The weather over the past few weeks has been extraordinary, with torrential rains, extreme winds, flooding, and landslides. Many communities are dealing with damage to homes, infrastructure, and businesses, stretching resources thin. These events have limited access to the mountains for all of us. State and local resources are working diligently to reduce the worst of these impacts. We can help by being respectful of local communities, obeying road closures, and heeding ski area uphill travel policies.

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