Avalanche forecast

Seeley Lake

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

 Precipitation has subsided, and a solid refreeze last night has locked the snowpack in place. Expect a melt-freeze crust and mostly supportable snow conditions on all aspects at elevations below 7,000 feet. Isolated lingering storm slabs may still be possible to trigger on steep slopes above the rain line. Watch for changing conditions as you travel to higher elevations. Choose terrain less than 35 degrees in slope angle and avoid high consequence runouts to manage this problem.  

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Over 3 inches of water fell as snow at upper elevations since Monday (2/28). Snow levels stayed lower in the Seeley zone hovering at approximately 6,500 to 7,000 feet. Areas that did not get saturated by rain the storm snow that fell over various surfaces, including dry faceted snow and melt-freeze crusts. It may still be possible to trigger large slides at upper elevations. Avoiding slopes steeper than 35 degrees and keeping an eye out for overhead hazards is the best way to reduce your exposure if you plan to travel at high elevations in this zone.

    (3/1/2022) Example of a storm slab.

    Photo: Jeff Carty

Avalanche Discussion

After an exciting rainy week, cooler temperatures and mild weather have entered the forecast area. Precipitation subsided over the past few days, and cooling temperatures have locked the snowpack in place. Light snow showers brought 1 to 3 inches over the past 36 hours. This fell over refrozen rain crusts in most areas.  

Winds have switched to north and easterly as the cooler temperatures pushed in. Overnight wind speeds have remained light with moderate gusts out of the east.

We found rain crust dominating snow surfaces up to 8,400 feet yesterday at the Gash Knob. Two inches of fresh snow sits over the crust above 7,000 feet. The crusts were breakable in some areas but more supportable at mid-elevations. Looking into the Bear Creek drainage, all the large north-facing slide paths east of Skypilot had large, up to D3, wet slides that released during the storm sometime Monday(2/28) or Tuesday (3/1).  

Yesterday, the snow stayed thoroughly saturated and wet at elevations below 6,000 feet. Last night the snowpack got a sold refreeze. With the sun coming out today, isolated loose wet problems could develop on south aspects during the hottest part of the day. Low elevations and south faces lost a lot of snow from melting in the rainstorm. The good news is that the road access is beginning to open up.

Ski and ride safe. 

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