Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Strong easterly winds and a few inches of new snow will increase the chances of natural and human-triggered avalanches through the day. These will likely be around 6 to 12" deep. Pay attention to blowing snow as a sign of increasing danger, and look for better stability and higher quality surface conditions on terrain that is sheltered from the winds. There is still an outside chance that a person may trigger a much larger avalanche on weak snow buried 3 to 5' deep at upper elevations.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

We are sorry to report a fatal avalanche accident that occurred outside of Girdwood on the afternoon of March 4, 2025. Three people were caught and killed in an avalanche in the west fork of the Twentymile River.  We extend our deepest condolences to the friends and families of all parties involved. We have posted a preliminary accident report on our website. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Avalanches failing within the new snow will become larger and more likely through the day and into tonight. Fresh wind slabs will likely be 6 to 12" deep by this afternoon, and they will be touchy. We will likely see some natural avalanche activity by the end of the day. These will be forming below ridgelines, convex rollovers, and in gullies that are getting loaded as the storm picks up. 

    These wind slabs are forming on top of the same layer of buried surface hoar that has been causing problems in Turnagain Pass and Seward/Lost Lake. So far, that layer hasn't been buried deep enough to be a major concern in the Summit Lake zone. However, as we continue to add a few inches of snow at a time, this layer may wake up and start causing larger avalanches. This next round of wind and snow will push us closer to that tipping point.

    (3/6/2025)

    Fresh wind slabs forming today will continue to add just a little more weight to the weak layer of surface hoar that was buried on Valentine's day.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The weak snow buried in the bottom half of the snowpack is still on our minds. While it is unlikely a person will be able to trigger an avalanche on this layer, it is still enough of a concern that it is keeping us off of big, exposed terrain in the Summit Lake area. The layers we are concerned with are multiple layers of faceted snow associated with crusts in the middle of the snowpack (around 2 to 4' deep), and a layer of faceted snow at the base of the snowpack, wich may be 3 to 5' deep or deeper.

    The most likely place to trigger an avalanche on this layer is from a place where the snowpack is thinner. It has the potential to propagate a long distance and make a very large avalanche, but the chances of this happening are low until we see a major loading event.

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