Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Elevated easterly ridgetop winds today will increase chances of finding a spot to trigger an avalanche 1' deep or more. This is most likely to happen above 2,500' where the wind is blowing snow into fresh pillows. Managing this problem can be accomplished by avoiding places that have been wind loaded like below ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Come find us at the Seattle Ridge motorized parking lot on Saturday, March 22 for our annual Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day! We will be there with Alaska Mining and Diving Supply and the Alaska Avalanche School to chat about avalanches and current conditions and to hang out with the good people of the southcentral Alaska winter community. AMDS will have demo snowmachines, and we’ll be holding down the grill and the fire pit. Stop by anytime from noon until 4:00 p.m. Details Here.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    There are just a few inches of new snow to blow around in Summit Lake, but the wind always finds a way to make new slabs despite a seemingly low amount of snow available. Especially in wind loaded places, a slab may be forming that is thick enough, which combined with a human-trigger, could overload the layer of buried surface hoar that may be 1' deep or more. The distribution of the buried surface hoar is spotty, which makes this problem difficult to predict. Snowpits are less reliable as a way to determine the stability of a particular slope as a result of this spotty distribution. The tricky nature of this problem is illustrated by the human-triggered avalanche that occurred Monday, March 17 on Seattle Ridge. See video below for the story. The summary is that there were 30 tracks already on the slope and 2 snowpits were dug with stable results within close proximity to a large human-triggered avalanche.

    This layer isn't as big of a problem in Summit Lake yet because there is not enough snow on top of the buried surface hoar to overload the layer in many places. Sticking to safe travel protocols like choosing low angle up routes and traveling one at a time in steep terrain will reduce chances of an accident if we find the wrong spot. This layer did get overloaded by a person on March 3rd on the north side of Tenderfoot. This was in a small gully that was being actively wind loaded at the time of the avalanche. The avalanche was not likely big enough to bury a person, but it may have injured them if they had been caught.

    The photo to the right illustrates some of the recent natural avalanches that have occurred on the northern border of the Summit Lake area in Lynx Creek. The buried surface hoar in this area has a bigger slab on top, which makes it easier to trigger either naturally or by a person.

    Cornices: Warming temperatures over the last few days may be weakening cornices. Include cornice avoidance in the route plan, whether it's giving them space on the ridge or watching out for them from below. 

    Glide Avalanches: Within the last 2 days, some movement in the massive south facing Cornbiscuit glide crack (in Turnagain Pass) triggered a few storm slabs (see photo below). Avoid spending time underneath glide cracks or reduce exposure by spreading out or moving one at a time if they are unavoidable.

    (3/17/2025)

    Several generations of avalanches in Lynx Creek. Some of these were 500-1000' wide.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Easterly ridgetop winds increased overnight creating small fresh wind slabs above 2,500'.  Watch for blowing snow today to avoid places where it is being deposited and a shooting crack is a sign of unstable snow. Wind slabs can feel hollow and if you poke at them with a pole or probe they feel like firm snow over softer snow.

    (3/11/2025)

    Winds slab avalanches releasing in steep terrain in the Summit area.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

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