Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Westerly winds have continued to build thicker slabs on the lee sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Yesterday, a small wind slab was human-triggered on Coney's. A triggered avalanche will be larger at upper elevations. Larger persistent slab avalanches can also be triggered on northerly-facing slopes. Carefully evaluate avalanche terrain to identify features of concern and consider routing around them. Southerly facing slopes that don't have additional wind loading offer the lowest risk of triggering a slab avalanche. By this afternoon, keep an eye out for potential wet loose avalanche activity if the sun makes a prolonged appearance today. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Northwest to west winds over the last few days have built thick slabs on the lee sides of terrain features. These slabs can release within the recent storm snow or step down to deeper weak layers where they overlap with the persistent slab avalanche problem. Last night, westerly winds averaged in the 20mph range with gusts into the 40's and 50's at 12,000ft. This avalanche problem commonly forms below ridgelines and on cross-loaded terrain features. Natural avalanches are possible on slopes with active wind-loading. 

    This small wind slab was human-triggered on Coney's yesterday. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    There is potential to trigger a dangerous slab avalanche on facets or depth hoar layers in the middle or bottom of the snowpack.  Persistent or deep persistent slab avalanches are most likely to be triggered on the northern half of the compass and where the snowpack is unusually thin and weak.  In rare cases, they might also be triggered on deeper slopes from step-down avalanches in the upper snowpack or cornice falls. Be cautious of very steep, rocky, or wind-affected terrain with variable snow depths and slopes receiving heavy windloading today.   Southerly slopes generally lack the problem due to previous meltwater strengthening the snowpack.  You can avoid the problem on slope angles consistently less than 30 degrees. 

    This notable natural avalanche ran Friday night or early Saturday morning. The avalanche debris pushed into the valley below. Schuylkill Ridge.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The sun is forecasted to make an appearance today. Wet loose avalanches will become possible to trigger on steep slopes that develop a few inches of wet snow on the surface of the snowpack. A wet loose avalanche cycle may begin if the sun comes out for a long period today. 

Avalanche Discussion

Give the weekly summary a read for more details on the current snowpack and avalanche conditions heading into the weekend. You can view the video summary here, or the text summary here. 

Avalanche conditions vary widely between the NW Mountain forecast area and the SE Mountain forecast area. Even some parts of the NW Mountain forecast area vary from other parts in the same forecast area. This is all due to the amount of snow that has accumulated since Thursday night. Local orographics have made for major variations in the amount of snow that has accumulated. Irwin has reported storm totals of 40” with 2.5” SWE. The Lake Irwin weather stations has also received 2.6” SWE in the same timeframe. An observer yesterday noted settled storm totals in the 12" to 16" range in the Anthracites near Ohio Pass which is only a couple miles away. The upper Slate River Valley also appears to be doing well with recent snow accumulations, and then Schofield Pass is running on the low end. CBMR has seen snow totals for the same period nearing 10”. A new persistent slab avalanche problem has developed in areas that have seen higher storm totals, while areas that have seen less snow are dealing with older persistent slab issues and new wind slabs. 

The wind directions backs to the southwest tonight and may find a new fetch of snow to transport. We will have to see how those winds pan out. If winds increase into Monday from a new direction, they will continue wind-loading lee terrain features, and natural avalanches may remain possible. Those conditions will be re-assessed in the morning. 

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