Regions
Kootenay Boundary.
All bets are off this weekend as very warm air spills into the region sending the freezing level well into the alpine. Rapidly rising temperatures may initiate large natural avalanches. Choose very conservative terrain free of overhead hazard.
Weather Forecast
The ridge remains in place Friday offering one last day of seasonal normal temperatures before southwesterly flow injects a substantial amount of warm air into the region Saturday and Sunday. FRIDAY: Freezing Level climbing to around 1500 m, returning to valley bottom overnight, light variable winds, no significant precipitation expected. SATURDAY: Freezing level starting at valley bottom climbing to 2500 m in the afternoon, moderate southwest winds, no precipitation. No overnight temperature recovery expected. SUNDAY: Freezing level holding at 2500 m, moderate southwest winds at ridge top, no precipitation expected. Increasing cloud cover will likely trap warm air leading to a greenhouse situation.
Avalanche Summary
It's been a very active period with numerous large natural and human triggered avalanches being reported over the last few days. On Wednesday a skier remote triggered a cornice failure from a few meters away on a north/northeast facing slope around 2100 m in the Rossland range. When the falling chunks of cornice impacted the slope below it triggered a very large (size 3) avalanche that ran on the March 6th crust. Natural cornice failures were also reported. A second skier triggered avalanche (size 2) was reported on a northeast facing feature near 2000 m. Numerous loose wet avalanches to size 1.5 were also reported from solar aspects. (Those with a south facing component.) On Monday a sleddder triggered a size 2 avalanche on a north facing feature at 1900 m failing on the late February surface hoar which resulted in a fatality in the Mt. Mackie area southwest of Castlegar.
Snowpack Summary
The recent storm snow is 40 to 60 cm deep and continues to settle above a mix of crusts at treeline and below. In some drainages these storm slabs may be sitting on a thin crust that was initially buried on March 11th. A second curst, (the early March melt/freeze crust) can be found down 50 to 80 cm. The late February (Feb 27th) persistent weak layer of buried surface hoar down 70 to 120 cm continues to result in large avalanches. I suspect that this weak layer is more prominent on northerly (shaded) aspects at and above 1700 m. This surface hoar layer may be associated with a crust on solar aspects. With forecast sun and strong solar radiation, triggering this deep weak layer may be more likely. Watch for moist or wet surface snow as a sign that solar radiation is strong and deep weak layers may become reactive.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.