Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snow keeps piling up, and dangerous avalanche conditions will stick around on Monday. Make a conservative travel plan and give a wide margin to steep, open slopes where you could trigger a large avalanche. Even sheltered terrain could produce small avalanches, especially during and immediately after heavy snowfall.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    On Monday, you are dealing with two different versions of the same avalanche problem. Continued snow and wind will create small fresh slabs that are likely to be sensitive to your weight, especially in the morning until the snow shuts off. You are more likely to trigger these slabs in wind-loaded areas and in convex and unsupported terrain. But what makes this problem worse is what it’s hiding underneath.

    The new snow is falling on existing slabs up to 3’ deep that are reactive and capable of propagating wide, long-running, and dangerous avalanches. This problem is buried by the new snow, so you won’t be able to assess it by looking at the surface. It will be most dangerous on steep, exposed slopes that were wind-loaded over the weekend, but those same slopes may now have a soft, fluffy, and inviting cap from the new snow. Don’t believe it. You may not get any warning signs before triggering a large avalanche.

    This problem may be tricky to explain, but it is simple to manage.

    Monday isn’t the day to trust steep, open slopes. Don’t worry about identifying the problem, just choose sheltered, lower-angled terrain. If you do venture into steeper sheltered slopes, carefully assess the bond of the new snow before committing. Look for hard-over-soft snow and use tools like uptrack tests, small test slopes, and hand shears to help evaluate conditions.

    (12/15/2024)

    This 2 foot deep wind slab avalanche was triggered by an explosive during control work by the Crystal Pro Patrol. It broke within old snow above the 12/7 interface. 

    Photo: Crystal Pro Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

The storm continues.By Monday morning, parts of the West South will have nearly 2 feet of storm snow. Remember, the number one sign of avalanches is avalanches, and we’ve seen plenty: natural, human-triggered, and explosive-triggered slides over the weekend. These avalanches have been reported at Crystal, Mount Rainier, and Mount Adams, with some propagating widely and wrapping around entire terrain features.

The snowpack needs time without loading to stabilize, but in many areas, it’s not getting a break. Daily avalanches, combined with ongoing snow and wind, should drive all of us to make cautious and conservative travel plans. Keep in mind that multi-day storms affect the mountains unevenly—some areas with less snow and wind may have lower avalanche danger.

Keep it simple on Monday.It’s shaping up to be a beautiful day to enjoy great snow in mellow, low-angle terrain.

If you get out, please share an observation with us!

Regions covered