Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

It's time to keep caution pinned to your frontal lobe. A decent looking storm series will bring heavy snow and strong wind to the area, creating potentially dangerous avalanche conditions. Use small test slopes as your canary in the coal mine. Avalanche danger is short-lived in our snow climate, and red flags are in your face. If you observe unstable snow, heed the warning. Remember, when the snowpack is in question, terrain is the answer. Slopes less than 30 degrees will not produce avalanches. Keep it pro, gang. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh wind slabs and cornices are likely below treeline, and certain near and above treeline. West/southwest winds will blow at 25–35 mph below and near treeline, and 50–60 mph above treeline. Expect active wind loading on all aspects of the right half of the compass. Look for signs like shooting cracks and collapsing of the snowpack. It's advised to give steep, windy avalanche terrain some space over the coming days. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    With potentially feet of snow in the forecast, pay attention to any terrain you are traveling in hosting six or more inches of snow. Storm slabs are possible as heavy snowfall accumulates rapidly. These slabs can be immediately sensitive to triggers and can release naturally or with minimal human impact. Storm slabs risk often diminishes quickly. Be most vigilant during or just after heavy snowfall. Recognition of storm slab danger is difficult in standard pit tests. Ski cut tests on small inconsequential slopes, or natural activity on indicator slopes, are often the best clues that a storm slab problem exists.

Avalanche Discussion

Peak avalanche hazard will likely occur late tonight or early tomorrow morning as a west-to-east storm track continues. Precipitation began near midnight, tapering later this morning, with strong winds persisting. Another storm tonight will bring moderate to heavy precipitation and more wind. Our weather stations are reporting some interesting new snow numbers this morning... Old Ski Bowl - 5" / Castle Lake - 16" / Mt. Eddy - station down

Firm snow surfaces dominate, with a strong underlying snowpack; avalanche danger is confined to new storm snow. Rising snow levels through the weekend could create an unstable "upside-down" snowpack with heavy snow atop lighter layers. Expect intermittent wind, snow, and precipitation, and use small test slopes to gauge conditions. Popular avalanche-prone areas include Sun Bowl, Powder Bowl, and the W/NW and E aspects of Gray Butte. Wind is certain in the coming days. How much new snow is uncertain. It's up to you to evaluate terrain as you travel through the backcountry. 

Regions covered