West Slopes South

A few inches of new snow won’t be enough to drive much of an avalanche hazard on Wednesday around the West South. If you’re going to find an avalanche, it will be at upper elevations where the storm snow was drifted into deeper piles by the wind. 

Seems like we’ve said this a lot this winter: It’s been a warm couple of days around the West South zone. The recent springlike weather had temperatures soaring into the 40s and 50s, resulting in several days of wet avalanche concerns. Cornice failures and Wet Loose avalanches were observed throughout the zone, and the remnants from this cycle are easy to spot almost everywhere you look. Rollerballs, wet avalanche debris, rain runnels, and rough surfaces are the norm from the crest to the volcanoes. 

Incoming snow on Wednesday and Thursday will start to cover these variable surfaces and is expected to bond fairly well. Higher snow totals are anticipated on the volcanoes, but still may not be enough to create a widespread dry avalanche problem on Wednesday. That said, if you’re going to find a dry avalanche, it will likely be in the form of shallow Wind Slabs building at upper elevations by day’s end. Even if you find one, they shouldn’t be large enough to be very consequential unless you get swept off your feet near a terrain trap such as cliffs or trees. 

Any new snow that falls during this event will only become fuel for later wet avalanches once we return to warmer and sunnier springtime weather. This time of year, it may not take much to start that process. It could be as early as Wednesday afternoon if the sun comes out for any prolonged period of time. Whenever we reach that point, look for any new snow to start to rollerball as it “ripens up” and becomes capable of producing Wet Loose avalanches. Other than that, we are still keeping an eye on the 3/8 facets above the Early March Crust to see if it will wake back up later this spring. Although it is highly unlikely that layer will be an issue on Wednesday. 

Many areas have been through multiple rounds of warm temperatures and rain, resulting in exposed natural hazards such as rocks, stumps, open creeks, and bare ground. This storm may be enough to just barely hide these obstacles, or rain at lower elevations could further exacerbate them.