Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will increase on Friday as a warm storm impacts the Olympics.  Pay attention to changing conditions and be prepared to pivot to simpler terrain if you see signs of increasing hazard. Dangerous conditions are likely in the eastern Olymipcs where heavier snow and rain are forecast. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As new snow piles up on Friday,  watch for signs of increasing instability.  Use small test slopes to see how the new snow is stacking up and bonding.  If you see evidence of natural slab avalanches, avoid nearby steep slopes. Higher elevations are likely to see all snow during this storm along with moderate to strong winds.  Avoid large open slopes at upper elevations capable of producing larger and more powerful avalanches.  

    In areas where denser storm snow builds over recently buried weak snow,  you may trigger avalanches that break wider or from lower angle terrain than you'd expect. Use caution when choosing terrain on Friday and be alert to changing conditions.   

    (12/17/2024)

    Widely propagating yet shallow soft slab avalanche on a steep, convex rollover.

    Photo: Jere Burrell - Guided Exposure

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Rain will push into lower and perhaps middle elevations on Friday.  In areas where you find heavy wet snow,  see evidence of recent natural wet snow avalanches, or just experience a change from snow to rain, steer around slopes steeper than 35 degrees.  Avalanches may become large on slopes where they can entrain and gouge into the upper snowpack.  Wet snow avalanches can pack more of a punch than you'd expect so you'll want to be especially careful above and near terrain traps like gullies, cliff bands, holes and open creeks.   

    (12/19/2024)

    Rollerballs, seen here along cut banks on the Hurricane Ridge Road, point to an increasing likelihood of loose wet avalanches on nearby steep slopes. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

After a period of lower hazard and pleasant soft snow conditions, we'll see a change in the weather and snowpack as a milder storm impacts the area.  You'll have to be on your toes in the Hurricane Ridge area and dial back your terrain selection if conditions warrant.  You're more likely to encounter widespread dangerous avalanche conditions in portions of the eastern Olymipcs, where heavier snowfall (and rainfall at lower elevations) will increase the likelihood of natural and human triggered avalanches.   

Prior to this storm,  NPS rangers in the Hurricane Ridge area noted widespread surface hoar after clear cold weather on 12/31, and these weak snow grains remain largely preserved  (less so on steeper southerly aspects with a thin sun crust) as we head into a more active weather pattern Thursday night through the weekend. There were no signs of recent avalanche activity in the Hurricane Ridge area and heading into this storm cycle, cornices are not particularly large for what they can be.  The stout Solstice crust formed following our last major rain event and could be found 2-2.5' down from the surface on a north aspect near 6000' (total snow depth around 6' or 2m).   Ample snow cover makes for easier travel above 4000', however near this elevation, holes, creeks, and other obstacles quickly impede easy navigation. 

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