Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

To significantly reduce the odds of triggering a large avalanche, avoid steep, open slopes that are exposed to the wind. Look for evidence of recent wind loading such as cornices, pillows, and drifted snow. On these slopes, you could trigger avalanches breaking on weak layers buried 1-3 feet deep. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As days with small amounts of new snowfall continue to trickle in, the snowpack is getting time to slowly adjust to additional loading.  However, the possibility of triggering a slide on a buried persistent weak layer will be on the table for some time to come. Uncertainty is high as to the tipping point of these layers. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain, be aware that at least one of these layers likely exists in the snowpack underneath you, particularly if recreating in terrain in the middle and upper elevations and on the southern half of the compass. Though not widespread, the layers most likely to produce large avalanches in this zone are found near the base of the snowpack and consist of well-developed facets and crust+facet sandwiches. 

    In a nutshell: be alert to the consequence of being caught in a large avalanche in the terrain you are recreating in. 

    You are more likely to trigger an avalanche on upper elevation, "prime-time" slopes steeper than about 35 degrees. Most upper-elevation slopes have received additional loading due to wind over the past few weeks. While triggering a wind slab is more likely, a wind slab avalanche could step down into these persistent weak layers resulting in a much larger avalanche.

    (1/21/2023)

    Drinkard and an older glide avalanche in the background; this avalanche type is uncommon for mid-winter, and currently not a primary concern. Weak snow exists across the whole of Togwotee, and the snowpack and depth should be assessed before committing to riding a slope. Even a simple check for depth is helpful. 

    Photo: Antonioli

Avalanche Discussion

Gather Evidence and Play the "What-If" Game

We're in an interesting time with daily incremental snowfall and new slabs forming on some weak surface snow. I'm interested in seeing what flushes out with a bigger storm this weekend. 

A low-frequency, high-consequence event is one of the most difficult problems to manage. By definition, it lies on the edges of our experience. Talk to your partners, communicate with other parties you encounter, and poke holes in your theories to not limit yourself to the obvious. Taking a broader approach to problems and solutions will set you up for mitigating uncertainty and the consequences that come with it. I constantly play the "What If" game in avalanche terrain. What if this slid? How bad could it be? What evidence do I need to know that I'm not just propagating errors in my thinking about this avalanche problem? Uncertainty can act as a guide for your plan for gathering observations while in the backcountry. Ensure the evidence you're gathering actually helps reduce your uncertainty about a problem and doesn't just support a desire. At the end of the day, a slope full o' tracks is just that-- a slope full o' tracks, and not a stability pattern. 

Another guiding question I read recently in a neighboring forecast zone is this: "Sure, avalanches are still possible, but where are they most possible?" Nearly all of this season's natural and human-triggered avalanches have occurred on a) steep terrain, b) ranging on the southern half of the compass, and c) wind-loaded slopes. Avoiding these types of slopes means you avoid areas where avalanches are "most possible." 

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