Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Increased wind speeds are expected to combine with lots of snow available for transport and create a reactive wind slab avalanche problem. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in wind-loaded terrain, typically near ridgelines and on cross-loaded terrain features. Large to very-large natural avalanches in this terrain are also possible. Avalanches breaking deeply into the snowpack remain a lower probability, but high consequence avalanche problem. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    West to northwest winds picked up overnight into the teens with gusts into the twenties and thirties. Wind speeds are forecasted to remain strong enough to continue transporting snow today. This is significant because we have recorded very little wind this week, so there is several feet of snow available for transport. These wind slabs will become sensitive to the weight of a person and also release naturally today. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in wind-loaded terrain such as near ridgelines and on cross-loaded terrain features. 

    A large wind slab that released in Red Coon Bowl last week. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Slabs ranging from 3 to 6+ feet thick are resting over faceted weak layers in the lower snowpack around much of the compass. These weak layers have generally adjusted to their current load and become more difficult to trigger. The most suspect areas to release this avalanche problem would be in recently wind-loaded terrain and trigger points and areas where the snowpack thins to a below-average depth. Such as near rock bands, on some slopes that previously avalanched and have refilled, or where winds have formed variable snow depths. Persistent slab avalanches can propagate widely through the terrain, or be remotely triggered from low-angle slopes connected to steeper slopes. You can reduce your risk by traveling on slopes with a deep, uniform snowpack, and you can reliably avoid the problem by traveling on slope angles that are consistently less than 30 degrees and not connected to steeper terrain above.  

     

     

    1/4:  A destructive natural avalanche in Red Lady Bowl broke full-width last week.  This avalanche would be hard to survive.

Avalanche Discussion

What a week, and really what a winter so far. Fairly consistent snowfall through late December and much of January has allowed a consistent upper snowpack to develop, and some abnormal avalanche conditions for our area. Recently, the snow that has accumulated this week, has been driving the avalanche danger in the form of new snow avalanche problems. While the persistent slab avalanche problem has become a lower likelihood but high consequence avalanche problem. This is something we would more commonly see in the spring and seldom see in mid-winter. 

Changes are coming, and some of those changes will lead to the possibility of natural avalanches releasing today. Over the last couple of days, storm slabs have been one of the primary avalanche problems. This avalanche problem has had dramatic peaks and valleys in how reactive it has been. Typically it has been reactive during periods of high precipitation rates, while transitioning to unreactive or stubborn when those quick-loading periods come to an end. Storm slabs are now fading away as we expect less accumulating snow today, and no accumulating snow tomorrow. The big change now is the increase in wind speeds, lots of snow available for transport, and the development of a potentially reactive wind slab avalanche problem. We don't have a clearly strong wind forecast, but we do have forecasted wind speeds that should remain strong enough to continue transporting snow at upper elevations. If we see continued transport today, then there is a real possibility that natural avalanches will begin to release. A large wind slab avalanche could also step down into more deeply buried weak layers and create a farther running very large avalanche. The SE Mountains have a higher likelihood of seeing avalanches step down into deeper weak layers. 

Below treeline elevations and wind-sheltered locations still have the lower likelihood but high consequence persistent slab avalanche problem. Otherwise, with regard to the new snow avalanche problems. Any reactive storm slabs are becoming more isolated, and loose snow avalanches are becoming the primary new snow avalanche problem. 

Tomorrow's avalanche danger may decrease to MODERATE or remain the same as today. This will all depend on how much wind-loading we see today and tonight. Otherwise, winds are forecasted to become light on Thursday. 

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