Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche is possible in wind-affected terrain—look for evidence of wind such as drifts, stiffened surfaces, or cornices. In these areas, triggering a small to large wind drift is possible. Though unlikely, these spots also hold a higher potential for triggering a larger avalanche breaking deeper in the snowpack. Safer conditions can be found on wind-sheltered slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    While you are most likely to find large, sensitive wind slabs at upper elevations, that isn't the only place they exist. Moderate winds build slabs down into middle-elevation terrain, and winds blowing from unusual directions (north and east) build slabs in unusual places. These will likely be 1-2 feet in depth but could break deeper on older hard slabs. Yesterday I observed fresh slabs in the Greys River and larger cornice failures along ridgelines. Though winds have eased overnight and less snow is available for transport, many of these wind slabs will remain reactive to your weight today. If you're traveling through thicker snow or see cracks around your feet, skis, or machine, you've found a wind slab. Even small avalanche terrain can have severe consequences where there are terrain traps like creek beds, and fast transitions from steep slopes to flat terrain below. 

    (1/3/2023)

    Large natural avalanche above the Martini Chutes on Rendezvous Peak ~10,000 feet on a southerly aspect.

Avalanche Discussion

Perception vs Reality

We all travel in the mountains with perceptions and biases as to what is happening in the snow around us. Though these two things have no correlation to the actual risk of avalanches in a particular place, they are intertwined in the human element of traveling in avalanche terrain. When moving in the different snowpacks in different areas of each range, I try to hedge my perceptions in cold hard data. Even with trends of persistent instabilities tapering in many locations, checking the snowpack before committing to steeper terrain (especially on aspects that have highlighted themselves as concerning in the past) is the only way to assess many of these problems. Either they are there, or they are not, but you have to dig in (literally and figuratively) to actually trend your perception towards the reality of what is happening with the snow in a given location. The process of continual assessment and re-assessment helps me wrap my head around my own biases and penchant for just seeing what I want to see. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain without any additional assessment each day, you choose to accept a very wide range of outcomes.  

All moderate danger is not equal. Our goal is to provide you with more nuance to conditions that may be oversimplified by a given avalanche problem and danger rating. The mere presence of buried persistent weak layers, even when deemed unreactive and not widespread, adds an element of complexity and unpredictability to snowpack assessment. The avalanches they produce tend to be larger and more destructive. But even with persistent layers, stability does improve slowly over time.  With our current conditions, the places where you could trigger an avalanche on a persistent layer are becoming more and more isolated. But it's definitely not a free-for-all; if you go looking for trouble, you'll likely find it. If you avoid very steep, wind-affected slopes, and shallow slopes—especially those at upper elevations—you can dramatically reduce your chances of triggering an avalanche. 

 

Regions covered