Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You're most likely to trigger avalanches on slopes where the wind has formed drifts or stiffened the snow surface. Large avalanches could also occur in steep wind-sheltered terrain. Avalanches may be triggered remotely—from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steep slopes. Smaller loose snow avalanches may release this afternoon on steep slopes that face the sun. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Triggering a 2-4' thick persistent slab avalanche is possible on steep slopes. Persistent weak layers (sugary facets, surface hoar, or crusts) exist on most aspects and elevations. The widespread nature of this problem is unusual. You're most likely to trigger one of these slides in recently wind-affected terrain. 

    Wednesday near Red Fish Lake, JP experienced collapsing each time he stepped off of the skin track. This "red flag" warning sign of instability is becoming much less common. This a sign that the snowpack is slowly stabilizing but we're not out of the woods yet. Remember that you could trigger slides remotely—from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steep slopes. These avalanches may break wider than expected or higher on the slope above you. 

    Unfortunately, avoiding slopes steep enough to slide is the only way to effectively manage this problem. While your odds of triggering a large avalanche are decreasing, the consequences of triggering one are not. Sticking to lower-angled, wind-sheltered slopes is a tactic to effectively reduce your risk.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION: Extreme wind over the Solstice built sensitive slabs on some slopes. You're most likely to find them at middle and upper elevations but they also exist on isolated slopes down to the valley bottom. Drifts may still be sensitive to your weight where they sit atop a weak surface of crusts, facets, and/or surface hoar. 

    Today's warm weather combined with afternoon sunshine may release loose snow avalanches on slopes that face the sun. These should be fairly small but will pile debris deep enough to be of concern below large slopes or channeled terrain. Valley locations may see some rain this afternoon, and certainly this evening which will spread loose snow avalanche activity to all aspects. 

    (12/22/2022) A very large natural avalanche occurred during the Winter Solstice wind event over Farley Lake. E @ 9,700'.

Avalanche Discussion

When writing the forecast in the morning I find it useful to imagine what I'd tell a friend visiting from out of town. And maybe that's you. If it is, props for finding the forecast. Here are the nuts and bolts of what I'd want them (you) to know:

  • Weak snow exists near the ground on most slopes. While the odds of triggering a very large avalanche involving this layer have generally decreased over the last week, this problem still dictates the type of terrain I'm willing to expose myself to. I'm still avoiding steep, consequential terrain particularly W-N-E facing slopes where the combination of weak snow and a thicker slab keep me feeling uneasy. 
  • An extreme wind event on the Solstice largely reshaped the snowpack. It formed slabs on many middle and upper elevation slopes but they also exist on isolated slopes down to the valley bottom. If one were to be triggered today, I'd expect it to be a hard slab that fails on some mix of facets or surface hoar and a crust or ice lens that survived the wind prior to burial. 
  • Uncertainty. In my 10+ years of forecasting, I can't recall a time that I've faced such an odd combination of snow and weather patterns. A widespread weak layer, an extreme wind event, and an Arctic cold front that's followed promptly by a sunny day in the mid-30s F. What will warming, tonight's rain, and tomorrow's temperature in the 40s F bring? That is a great question. Despite having no clear answer, I find solace in a simple rule—as my uncertainty in the conditions increases my appetite for complex or consequential terrain decreases.  

My advice is to remain conservative. The likelihood of a large avalanche is decreasing but the consequences if caught in a slide are not. Personally, that's a game I'm not willing to play. There are enough places to get in trouble out there today, that I'd feel more comfortable sticking to lower-angled slopes, or simple terrain that's disconnected from larger slopes. With that general baseline, I'd steer clear of obvious recently wind-loaded terrain. Not only is wind-sheltered terrain safer today, but the skiing and riding will almost certainly be more enjoyable. 

Enjoy your Holiday weekend and be sure to check out the latest installment of our Weekend Update!

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