Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The storm that brought 1-1.5' of snow to the area yesterday has exited, but conditions may still be reactive today. Treat the new snow as guilty until proven innocent today, and expect to find the most dangerous conditions on slopes where winds have blown the snow into thicker slabs up to 2 or 3' deep. There is a much smaller chance that you may be able to trigger a much larger avalanche on weak snow buried 4 to 6' deep. These problems will take careful snowpack evaluation, and it may be difficult to identify which terrain is holding the weakest snow. If in doubt, you can avoid the problem entirely by sticking to lower-angle terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The weather is expected to be quiet today, but avalanche conditions may still be dangerous as yesterday's storm snow settles out. Multiple skiers reported touchy conditions in the Tincan trees yesterday during the heat of the storm (see this observation, for example). Conditions should be slightly more stable today, but there is still a chance a person could trigger a large avalanche 1 to 2 feet deep within this most recent snow. Avalanches will be bigger and more likely where slopes have recently been wind-loaded.  However, we may still see unstable conditions even in sheltered terrain since this storm finished warm and upside-down, putting a heavier layer of snow on top of a weak and light layer.

    Safe travel today will require careful snowpack assessment. Be on the lookout for clear signs that the new snow hasn't quite settled out yet. Things like shooting cracks or collapsing are clear indicators of unstable snow, but you won't always see these even when conditions are still dangerous. Approach steep slopes cautiously, and consider using lower-consequence terrain while this snow has a little more time to stabilize.

    Cornices: The storm came in with winds reaching 100 mph, which have built large and sensitive cornices. Limit exposure to this overhead hazard, and be sure to give them plenty of space if you are traveling along ridgetops.

    Storm totals below begin Saturday evening when the snow started falling. The rain line stayed below around 1000' for Girdwood and Turnagain Pass this time around, and made it up to around 1500' for Summit Lake and Seward.

    • Girdwood: 18" snow/ 1.8" snow water equivalent  (SWE)
    • Turnagain Pass: 19" snow/ 1.3" SWE
    • Summit Lake: 8" snow/ 0.7" SWE
    • Seward/Lost Lake:  12" snow/ 1.0" SWE

    (1/19/2025)

    Skier-triggered avalanche in the Tincan Trees yesterday. Avalanche was around 60' wide and 8-10" deep. It failed on a lower density layer of storm snow that fell earlier in the storm.

    Photo: Eli Hermanson

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    This most recent loading event is adding stress to the weak layer of faceted snow that was buried 15 days ago. While it is unlikely a person will be able to trigger an avalanche on this layer, it is not impossible. The most likely places to run into trouble with this layer will be in areas with a thinner overall snowpack, where the weight of a person or snowmachine has a bigger impact on that buried weak layer. Possible trigger points include rocky terrain, or features that consistently get scoured by winds. 

    We have very little recent information in this forecast area outside of the most heavily visited areas (Tincan, Seattle Ridge, and Sunburst) for the past week or so. Although we think this problem is unlikely, we are not ready to rule it out yet. Keep it in mind as you navigate, and consider avoiding larger slopes, or slopes with exposure to terrain traps like cliffs, gullies, or start zones above trees or rocks.

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