West Slopes South

You may find a dusting of new snow accompanied by gusty winds on Friday, but it won't be enough to increase the avalanche hazard. Variable travel conditions will likely be challenging but may improve slightly with the new snow. Be sure to have the right tools to manage slick surfaces and know how to use them.

The West South is in a static pattern regarding the avalanche potential until a major storm comes our way. There are fluctuations in the weather that make each day a little different, but by and large, they are not affecting the upper snowpack or avalanche hazard. After several sunny days this week, clouds began thickening Thursday afternoon ahead of a short and uninspiring "storm" Thursday night. Unfortunately, this won't be a big snow producer, but you might find a dusting by Friday morning. As we switch toward northerly flow, wind speeds should increase slightly as temperatures fall. Don't bank on slopes softening in the sun too much on Friday.

So bring those sharp objects if you're headed out and know how to use them. Travel conditions are still the biggest hazard in the mountains. In open areas, surfaces are generally smooth but can be variable. Dark and shaded slopes contain faceted snow, while sun-exposed aspects are a mix of wind-pressed snow, breakable crusts, and slick, firm crusts. Long, uncontrolled slides are possible in some locations. While these slopes are a challenge, they are passable without too much headache given the right tools, patience, and some prior experience. The real problem may be accessing them. Under tree cover, the surface is much firmer and irregular due to tree bombs, frozen tracks, or ice chunks. Bare boots, often with crampons may be the best tool for navigating these areas. 

Looking ahead, we’re focused on the snow above and around the 1/10 crust. Reports of widespread surface hoar and near-surface facets continue to pour in. On Thursday, NWAC forecasters in the Crystal Mountain area found multiple inches of weak snow above and below the 1/10 crust, which was weak in its own right. These aren't an issue right now but likely will become problematic whenever it snows and we all flock to the hills to resume winter recreation. In the meantime, if you're going to find an avalanche, it will be in a wind pocket on a far-flung high peak or in a dark corner of the zone.