Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New wind slabs from yesterday and today may be found near and above treeline. Cautious routes, diligent snowpack assessment, and conservative decisions will help to keep you out of trouble. 

Below treeline, carefully evaluate the snowpack before committing to avalanche terrain, especially consequential terrain.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    On Thursday, many slopes were observed from a distance (with binoculars). Despite 3-4" of SWE added by the March 1-2 storm, there was no evidence of any persistent slab avalanches. It is unlikely that a person will directly trigger a persistent slab avalanche. Still, a person may trigger a wind slab avalanche that then steps down, causing a larger persistent slab avalanche. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind-loaded, rounded, pillowed, rippled, and corniced slopes may have new and sensitive wind slabs near and above treeline. Exercise caution and be aware of micro terrain features that can collect snow deposited by wind. 

    Below treeline, some open slopes had wind slabs that were reactive on Wednesday and Thursday.  You may still find some reactive slabs. Carefully evaluate the snowpack before committing to slopes over 30° steep. 

    Wind slab avalanches may step down, triggering larger persistent slab avalanches.

    (3/2/2023)

    Wind actively scouring and cross-loading terrain features on the north slopes of Sugarloaf Mountain. The top of Sugarloaf Mountain is about 9,200'.

    Photo: Troy Marino

Avalanche Discussion

Evidence of small to medium-sized avalanches was observed on Fremont Peak on Thursday, March 2. See photos. These all appear to be less than size D2 and occurred during the March 1-2 storm. Winds affected open and sparsely treed slopes at all elevations yesterday. Sun crusts developed on southerly aspects yesterday afternoon. At lower elevations, many aspects were affected by solar radiation and warming temps. 

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