Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Despite a drying trend, temperatures will continue to rise, increasing the danger from wet snow avalanches. You could easily trigger avalanches in heavy, wet snow on steep terrain, or it may slide unexpectedly from above. Stick to traveling on low angle terrain and don't linger beneath large snow-covered rocks or gullies where wet snow may flow from above 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures will continue to rise, and with cloudy skies overnight, we also don't expect much of a surface crust to form. This means the snow will remain heavy, wet, and weak. It's possible that the full menu of wet avalanche problems is on the table for Tuesday. If you're sinking deeply into wet snow, you could easily trigger wet loose avalanches on steep slopes.

    Rock slabs or cornices can shed large blocks of snow from overhead. Wet avalanches that initiate at higher elevations may funnel through gullies into lower elevations. With crusts and previous weak interfaces in the upper snowpack, there is even a chance for wet slab avalanches. While these are less likely, they are much more unpredictable.

    Wet snow problems come with significant uncertainty, so let the snowpack adjust to these tropical temperatures. Stack the odds in your favor by sticking to low-angle terrain and limiting time spent under rock slabs or gullies.

    (3/17/2025)

    An example of triggered wet avalanches, similar to what you might find on Tuesday. 

    Photo: Payton Schiff

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche Fatality: On Friday, January 9th, four backcountry skiers were caught and carried by a large avalanche while descending near Longs Pass in the Teanaway River drainage. The slide occurred on an S to SE facing slope at approximately 6200ft. One member of the party was not buried. Another teammate was partially buried but injured. The other two individuals were fully buried. During the initial rescue, the team located one of the buried victims, who did not survive. Despite the group's best efforts, they could not pinpoint the fourth member of their team. The party contacted 911 via a satellite device, and Kittitas County Search and Rescue responded to the area on Friday evening. Additional rescue efforts were postponed until daylight. Search and Rescue then returned to the site on Saturday and were joined by NWAC forecasters. The teams were able to locate the remaining victim. Unfortunately, neither of the fully buried skier survived. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends, and community of those involved in this avalanche accident. S-SE aspect, 6200ft, Avg Depth 2ft, HS-AS-R3-D2.5-O

Forecast Discussion:

There is a chance of very light rain in areas near the Cascade Crest on Tuesday morning, but the trend will be toward drier and, unfortunately, warmer weather.  High, thin clouds may slightly reduce solar input, but even those clouds will be on their way out by Tuesday evening. 

Precipitation varied across the zone, as is typical for East Central. Areas closer to the Cascade Crest picked up about .5-.7" of rain, while areas further east saw very little precipitation. Even with minimal rain, Mission Ridge Ski Patrol reported widespread wet loose avalanches due to unseasonably warm temperatures. 

However, as conditions continue to warm and water begins to percolate through the snowpack, other older layers could become suspect. The first of these layers would likely be the interface between all the recent snow and the most recent crust, buried 2-3' deep. This layer was involved in several avalanches across the zone over the past week, including the fatality near Longs Pass. Previous avalanches on a layer in the snowpack, quickly followed by rain and warming, always have our attention for wet slab potential. That said, wet slabs are tricky to forecast and very unpredictable. If they occur at all, the tipping point may be continued warming and sun on Tuesday or Wednesday. 

Despite a healthy dose of snow the first week of the first week of the year, conditions remain thin, particularly at lower elevations and east of Hwy 97. In addition to the travel challenges this brings, even small avalanches in these locations can take you for a rough, nasty ride.

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