Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Pay attention to firmer or textured surfaces in steep, exposed terrain, as this could mean wind loaded snow lurks nearby. If the sun permeates thin cloud coverage enough on Saturday, you could see sluffs of wetted snow releasing from steep cliff bands and rock features. 

NWAC is aware of an avalanche involvement in the East Central Zone, Teanaway River/Longs Pass area. Information is currently limited. We are working with local authorities and Search and Rescue personnel. We will update once more information is available.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs are stabilizing; however, we don't have ample evidence to strongly validate lingering sensitivity at upper elevations. Furthermore, Saturday should see wind strong enough to continue transporting recently fallen dry snow onto lee slopes. Blowing snow and a change to denser yet soft snow are signs that wind slabs are fresher and potentially more sensitive. You may see cracking, collapsing, or small new avalanches. 

    Older, harder slabs are less sensitive, but more dangerous and less likely to give any feedback. Numerous large natural and explosive triggered avalanches were observed as recently as Thursday at middle and upper elevation terrain, so don't completely rule out the possibility of triggering one, especially at upper elevations.

    Signs of wind transport include sharp drift and cornice development, textured surfaces, and riming on the windward side of objects. Slabs typically form just below ridgelines and along open gully walls (cross loading). You can steer around slopes above 35 degrees where you see signs of new and old wind transport.

    (1/5/2026)

    Sharp and large cornices have developed along the north side of this ridgeline. Wind textured surfaces are also visible in this photo and cracking was observed on the south side of the ridge too. Remember to give cornices a wide berth!

    Photo: Payton Schiff

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Saturday will be another day of variable cloud coverage, so we can't rule out the possibility of snow warming and weakening. There is still a lot of fresh, dry snow out there that will be easily affected by the weather. When you notice large clumps of snow falling from trees or cliffs and roller balls forming, mark that as a sign that the snowpack is warming and weakening. Pay attention to the terrain around you as sluffs can start in steep terrain above, and carry you into terrain traps below. If the sun comes out enough that surfaces get sticky and moist, you'll want to retreat to more sheltered terrain. We suspect that at upper elevations, the snowpack will remain too cold and hardened by the wind to be as easily affected.

    (1/9/2026) Photo: Josh Hirshberg

    Rollerballs from cliff bands are usually the first sign that the snowpack is weakening and wet loose avalanches are becoming a possibility.

Avalanche Discussion

On Thursday, Mission Ridge Pro Patrol triggered numerous wind and storm slabs during morning mitigation work. On Friday, observers traveling on Mt. Cashmere noted a large (D2) wind slab around 5000 ft that released within the last 24 hours. They also observed wind transport along upper elevation ridgelines. This information is all from areas that received considerably less snow this week. Consider how conditions might be in areas that received more snow, such as the Salmon La Sac and Chiwakums.

On Friday, an NWAC Forecaster traveling on Hwy 2 reported numerous wet loose avalanches that released in very steep, sun-exposed terrain. Another observer in the Teanaway noted sticky surfaces and extensive roller balling as the sun blazed hot. The rest of the zone, for the most part, remained under thin cloud cover, so there is likely a lot of recent, dry snow that is yet to be influenced by warming. Temperatures are expected to be warmer on Saturday, yet thin high clouds may continue hovering over much of the region. This creates uncertainty in the likelihood of encountering a wet loose avalanche. The good news is that recognizing the telltale signs of warming and weakening is easy.

Precipitation totals for the week reported by weather stations are 1.7-2.1 inches for the southwest corner, 1.3 for the northwest, and 0.2-0.8 for the east side. Generally, 0.1 inches of precipitation is equivalent to 1 inch of snow, but most of this snow was low density, so observed snow depths were initially much deeper prior to settlement. All of this new snow sits over a right side up snowpack with a number of melt freeze crusts within. One of Mission Ridge's avalanches on Thursday stepped down to a crust formed around New Year's and the observed avalanche on Mt. Cashmere is suspected to have failed on a crust. Otherwise, we haven't heard of much instability associated with any crust. We still lack a lot of information for upper elevations and for terrain in the northern end of the zone, however. Snowpack depths are significantly deeper in the Salmon La Sac and maybe even the Teanaway. Five to 8 feet have been found in the La Sac, whereas observations have reported an average of 2 to 3 feet in the central and eastern parts of the zone.

Despite all this awesome new snow, open creeks, downed logs, and other hazards remain obstacles at lower elevations and in areas with shallower snowpacks. They may be obscured by new snow now, so take your time as you move around the backcountry. In choosing terrain, consider the consequences of a slide. Look for slopes with a clean runout free of bone-breaking trees, creeks, and rocks. 

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